THREAD: Is it a coup yet?
Today a journalist asked me, is what Trump is doing a coup? If not, how can we best describe it? What words should we use?
I continue to argue this is not a coup, but I take seriously the challenge of finding the right language to talk about what it is +
I'm still saying this is not a military coup, because there is no threat of force here at all. It is really important for us to point out what Trump is doing, how, & who is helping him. This isn't about force or threat, it's about sheer bluster which focuses us on his enablers.
In some countries, one could have a civilian coup or a constitutional coup where a leader illegitimately uses the law to get what he wants. But Trump literally has no stick with which to coerce others. This is clear in the tape. What he has are people who are choosing to help him
So if this is not a coup, what is it? Well, it is most likely illegal for one thing, and we could talk about the crimes being committed. It is also a betrayal of core principles & the oath of office. It is definitely an impeachable offense.
One of the many things I like about his piece is that he calls out very directly all of the other Senators, Representatives, Governors, politicians who are betraying the core principles of the Republic rather than only talking about the President.
So I think there are many things we can and should call this effort. There's one more thing I think we should do, which is to call it risible, absurd, laughable. Authoritarians are vulnerable to mockery, & this is a naked powergrab that deserves to be treated with ridicule.
We should not only reject it as a betrayal, we should laugh at it and all the people who are participating in it. There is a long history of this: bbc.com/culture/articl…
So TLDR: Not a coup, but a betrayal, power-grab, seditious and also absurd. Part of rejecting this power-grab is holding all of the opportunistic enablers to account. And ridiculing them. END
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Some thoughts on what we are seeing, why it is not a coup, what sort of bad thing it is, and what might make it a coup attempt.
First, yes we have been seeing an effort by Trump to remain in power, using various means. And yes, what we saw today was Trump supporters using force to disrupt a democratic transition. But think about what we didn't see - he didn't use any of the security forces, just rabble.
In the call to the GA Sec of State, he tried to convince and cajole the other man to "find" votes, but he didn't use state power to force him to do so. Today we see citizens who support Trump engage in illegal activities to try to keep him in power, but no state security forces.
Attempts to resist democratic transition in the USA are very concerning, but without the use of force (or the threat of the use of force) they are not a military coup. Even an autogolpe requires threatened force to work. +
I get what Ezra Klein is saying here & he is right to point out that there is a wholly illegitimate attempt to retain power after losing an election. This is very dangerous. But right now (thankfully) it appears that all of this remains purely civilian + vox.com/2020-president…
The lack of force / lack of threat of force means there is a limit to what can be done. Strategies to retain power rest of legal gambits or political ones, responses can be the same. It is very dangerous & will damage institutions & norms but it is qualitatively different +
For somewhere between the last 5 to 10 years I have tried to share articles about Juneteenth & express my hope that it becomes a national holiday, an independence day as revered as July 4th. Today I want to explain what Juneteenth means to me, esp since I'm not Black +
When I first went to Ghana as a graduate student, I remember seeing celebrations of emancipation day and realizing that they were celebrating the British end of slavery but (as I wrongly believed) there was no corresponding American holiday +
It took a few years before I learned of Juneteenth. And the need to celebrate it seemed obvious and irrefutable. How could America celebrate freedom without celebrating the self-emancipation of the formerly enslaved? This was the most profound freedom there was +
Some thoughts about what happened in Venezuela earlier. First, DISCLAIMER I speak only for myself and not my employer. I have no knowledge of what the USG is doing here. TLDR: Either this was a really crappy coup attempt or Guaidó is trying to do something else. (1)
Part 1: *If this was a coup attempt it was very poorly handled*
A coup attempt succeeds when the challenger makes it appear that his victory is a fait accompli. This creates a self-fulfilling dynamic. By convincing people the coup will succeed, it does so (2)
This is what game theorists call a coordination game. Actors most of all want to avoid a lack of coordination which might lead to a civil war. They also want to avoid being on the losing side. Therefore, they try to back the side everybody else will back (3)
SUDAN COUP RANDOM THOUGHTS: When I spoke to a journalist about Sudan yesterday, I said the bottom line was "It's not over yet." I'm writing a piece with the thesis "the current (now old) junta is unstable" But even I didn't expect to see Ibn Auf removed so very quickly. (1)
I know it sounds obvious now that Ibn Auf has stepped down / been removed as President, but the early stages of a coup are a period of great flux, and this junta in particular is unstable since it incorporates the same rivals that acted as counterweights to each other before (2)
Bashir was able to stay in power for almost 30 years by "coup-proofing" his government. Among other things, he built the NISS and the RSF into counterweights for the regular armed forces, and set them against each other (3)
Thread on Venezuela: Some of you asked for my reaction early on. I was chuffed that you checked in with me, but had little to say until I had time to read. My apologies for the delay. Also, let me put the disclaimer up front. SPEAKING FOR MYSELF AS A SCHOLAR. (1/n)
What happened in Venezuela is not yet a military coup. I think it is clear that the opposition and its supporters would like a transfer of power via a soft coup, a non-violent withdrawal of military support for the ruling party. But that hasn't happened yet & may not (2/n)
My book is focused on what happens during a coup attempt once it starts, and that hasn't happened. My remarks here are based on a broader understanding of coup conspiracies and deterrence. These are areas I have studied less well or have weaker conclusions about, but still (3/n)