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Naunihal Singh

6 Jan, 10 tweets, 2 min read

Some thoughts on what we are seeing, why it is not a coup, what sort of bad thing it is, and what might make it a coup attempt.

First, yes we have been seeing an effort by Trump to remain in power, using various means. And yes, what we saw today was Trump supporters using force to disrupt a democratic transition. But think about what we didn't see - he didn't use any of the security forces, just rabble.

In the call to the GA Sec of State, he tried to convince and cajole the other man to "find" votes, but he didn't use state power to force him to do so. Today we see citizens who support Trump engage in illegal activities to try to keep him in power, but no state security forces.

Why am I hung up on this distinction? Because (a) he is operating as the head of a movement rather than the head of state and (b) these gambits are still very weak and easy to defeat. The GA call was leaked. Police forces can deal with this rabble. A coup would be different.

I mean, heck, police forces have dispersed far larger groups of protesters all over America. They have used far more force against peaceful protesters. Or people not engaged in criminal activity. And they have enough force to deal with this crowd. As does the national guard.

Earlier reports that the DoD may have refused a request for support did worry me. Not because DC needs the National Guard to deal with these guys, but because we do not want the military to do anything that tacitly supports this mob.

In fact, that is one way we might see a coup/autogolpe. If there was mass protest in support of Trump (armed or unarmed) and the military refused to stop the protestors as they took over and seized power. This is what many revolutions look like. The Arab Spring worked this way.

But there will be no Trump Spring or Trump Revolution with an accompanying coup where the uniformed military determines who will be in power by refusing to stop mass action. We are nowhere near that. And there are plenty of tools to deal with the current scenario.

The police can deal with this small group of violent individuals. They can also deal with their ringleaders. And we can respond politically (and legally) to punish those who were responsible for the situation. Even where there is no legal penalty, there should be a social one.

We should focus on the threat, the actors who are engaging in violence, their organizers, their moral supporters, their inspiration, and deal with each one accordingly.

What is this? It looks like sedition to me, although I am not a lawyer. Treat it as such.

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More from @naunihalpublic

Naunihal Singh

@naunihalpublic

4 Jan

THREAD: Is it a coup yet?
Today a journalist asked me, is what Trump is doing a coup? If not, how can we best describe it? What words should we use?
I continue to argue this is not a coup, but I take seriously the challenge of finding the right language to talk about what it is +

I'm still saying this is not a military coup, because there is no threat of force here at all. It is really important for us to point out what Trump is doing, how, & who is helping him. This isn't about force or threat, it's about sheer bluster which focuses us on his enablers.

In some countries, one could have a civilian coup or a constitutional coup where a leader illegitimately uses the law to get what he wants. But Trump literally has no stick with which to coerce others. This is clear in the tape. What he has are people who are choosing to help him

Read 9 tweets

Naunihal Singh

@naunihalpublic

12 Nov 20

Attempts to resist democratic transition in the USA are very concerning, but without the use of force (or the threat of the use of force) they are not a military coup. Even an autogolpe requires threatened force to work. +

I get what Ezra Klein is saying here & he is right to point out that there is a wholly illegitimate attempt to retain power after losing an election. This is very dangerous. But right now (thankfully) it appears that all of this remains purely civilian + vox.com/2020-president…

The lack of force / lack of threat of force means there is a limit to what can be done. Strategies to retain power rest of legal gambits or political ones, responses can be the same. It is very dangerous & will damage institutions & norms but it is qualitatively different +

Read 13 tweets

Naunihal Singh

@naunihalpublic

19 Jun 20

For somewhere between the last 5 to 10 years I have tried to share articles about Juneteenth & express my hope that it becomes a national holiday, an independence day as revered as July 4th. Today I want to explain what Juneteenth means to me, esp since I'm not Black +

When I first went to Ghana as a graduate student, I remember seeing celebrations of emancipation day and realizing that they were celebrating the British end of slavery but (as I wrongly believed) there was no corresponding American holiday +

It took a few years before I learned of Juneteenth. And the need to celebrate it seemed obvious and irrefutable. How could America celebrate freedom without celebrating the self-emancipation of the formerly enslaved? This was the most profound freedom there was +

Read 16 tweets

Naunihal Singh

@naunihalpublic

30 Apr 19

Some thoughts about what happened in Venezuela earlier. First, DISCLAIMER I speak only for myself and not my employer. I have no knowledge of what the USG is doing here. TLDR: Either this was a really crappy coup attempt or Guaidó is trying to do something else. (1)

Part 1: *If this was a coup attempt it was very poorly handled*
A coup attempt succeeds when the challenger makes it appear that his victory is a fait accompli. This creates a self-fulfilling dynamic. By convincing people the coup will succeed, it does so (2)

This is what game theorists call a coordination game. Actors most of all want to avoid a lack of coordination which might lead to a civil war. They also want to avoid being on the losing side. Therefore, they try to back the side everybody else will back (3)

Read 18 tweets

Naunihal Singh

@naunihalpublic

12 Apr 19

SUDAN COUP RANDOM THOUGHTS: When I spoke to a journalist about Sudan yesterday, I said the bottom line was "It's not over yet." I'm writing a piece with the thesis "the current (now old) junta is unstable" But even I didn't expect to see Ibn Auf removed so very quickly. (1)

I know it sounds obvious now that Ibn Auf has stepped down / been removed as President, but the early stages of a coup are a period of great flux, and this junta in particular is unstable since it incorporates the same rivals that acted as counterweights to each other before (2)

Bashir was able to stay in power for almost 30 years by "coup-proofing" his government. Among other things, he built the NISS and the RSF into counterweights for the regular armed forces, and set them against each other (3)

Read 14 tweets

Naunihal Singh

@naunihalpublic

27 Jan 19

Thread on Venezuela: Some of you asked for my reaction early on. I was chuffed that you checked in with me, but had little to say until I had time to read. My apologies for the delay. Also, let me put the disclaimer up front. SPEAKING FOR MYSELF AS A SCHOLAR. (1/n)

What happened in Venezuela is not yet a military coup. I think it is clear that the opposition and its supporters would like a transfer of power via a soft coup, a non-violent withdrawal of military support for the ruling party. But that hasn't happened yet & may not (2/n)

My book is focused on what happens during a coup attempt once it starts, and that hasn't happened. My remarks here are based on a broader understanding of coup conspiracies and deterrence. These are areas I have studied less well or have weaker conclusions about, but still (3/n)

Read 28 tweets

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