I want to acknowledge a lot of the others on this #GASen modeling ride:
@ADincgor -- the model's co-creator
@joe__gantt, who also models it and has given us the precinct adjustment for our model
@thunderousprof and @dooraven, who track early voting reporting with us
[1/]
@ADincgor -- the model's co-creator
@joe__gantt, who also models it and has given us the precinct adjustment for our model
@thunderousprof and @dooraven, who track early voting reporting with us
[1/]
@EconWanabe, @Eggymceggerson3 and @umichvoter99, who track the backlogs and outstanding ballots and follow the data just as closely.
@krazgreinetz, who's done a great job writing on/tracking this.
@EScrimshaw, who was the first to yell at me about why our initial model was wrong
@krazgreinetz, who's done a great job writing on/tracking this.
@EScrimshaw, who was the first to yell at me about why our initial model was wrong
@OpenModelProj, who have really done a standout job in improving model transparency
@DFMresearch, who's been modeling this on the side as well
@nolesfan2011 and @elium2, who have walked me through several key GA metrics and voting procedures
@JDubwub for his great graphics
@DFMresearch, who's been modeling this on the side as well
@nolesfan2011 and @elium2, who have walked me through several key GA metrics and voting procedures
@JDubwub for his great graphics
Whatever happens, some of us will be wrong tomorrow.
That's okay. This is a race with a lot of uncertainty, and you should expect that some of the assumptions we make will break. After all, there hasn't been anything like this in recent history.
That's okay. This is a race with a lot of uncertainty, and you should expect that some of the assumptions we make will break. After all, there hasn't been anything like this in recent history.
Whatever happens, don't go into the mentions of modelers who made *data-based takes* on why they thought the GOP could win and laugh at them if Democrats win.
Do not go into the mentions of people who thought Democrats would win and yell if the GOP win.
Do not go into the mentions of people who thought Democrats would win and yell if the GOP win.
Most forecasters and modelers are keeping their models private. Anyone making their forecast public deserves a lot of credit for putting it out there instead of shame if they're wrong. All they do is follow the data. If things break, then they break, but they've been honest.
I'm almost certain I forgot some people in this tweet, so please just go ahead and tag them if I haven't done so already; any oversights are unintentional and are a function of me having accidentally had milk before taking lactase supplements and thus being in great pain recently
oh, yeah, some others who've done some great work:
@ryanmatsumoto1 -- wrote some great columns on this that I would highly encourage you to read
@PoliticalKiwi -- first made the chart on enthusiasm's correlation to e-day
@CautiousLefty -- has been tracking exurbs/rurals forever
@ryanmatsumoto1 -- wrote some great columns on this that I would highly encourage you to read
@PoliticalKiwi -- first made the chart on enthusiasm's correlation to e-day
@CautiousLefty -- has been tracking exurbs/rurals forever
And, of course, @breaking_et and @KrissieTX; you all already know what they do. Krissie's done a great job with Team Ossoff, as expected, and Breaking ET has done a wonderful job reporting on-the-ground turnout numbers.
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