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More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

7 Jan

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1347067313736962048

I think this is a bit to the other side.

Abrams really helped the registration drive in GA. We've seen in TX and FL how a lack of it hurt us. She did some amazing, amazing work.

But the key underlying reason for the flip (strong suburban swing left) was not her doing.

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1347067313736962048

This does *not* diminish the incredible organizing work Abrams did one bit.

It does say, though, that if we want to win as a party, we need to understand the underlying reason behind the GA win: huge suburban swing and Black turnout

Abrams had a lot to do with increased Black turnout and should be applauded for it, and this infrastructure should be built on.

She had little to do with swings in places like Henry.

Read 4 tweets

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

6 Jan

Seen a lot of impeachment speculation around the TL.

My thoughts here are that there's a lot of anger floating around, and I really wouldn't be surprised one bit if "moderate" members like Kinzinger vote yes.

But now the more I think, the more I doubt it. *This* is their line?

Thought exercise: What's in it, politically, for some random House GOP member like Mike Simpson to vote yes on impeachment?

You just get a primary and another lunatic replaces you. They'll justify it by saying "if I don't stay, someone worse comes in".

"It's the right thing to do to remove!" Sure, but aside from some notable cases (Kinzinger, Fitzpatrick, and Mace are notable ones that jump to mind), why do we think any of them have a thread of integrity to stand on principle?

Read 6 tweets

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

6 Jan

https://twitter.com/TossupReport/status/1346935435499606026

I'd expect to see a lot more of this soon.

https://twitter.com/TossupReport/status/1346935435499606026

Of course, the fact that it took until this point for anything to happen is an entirely different story and a complete disgrace, but...

My take on this, if I read between the lines, if there's an impeachment vote, that means Mace will vote yes, in all likelihood.

That's really strong and specific wording.

Read 4 tweets

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

4 Jan

@ADincgor

I want to acknowledge a lot of the others on this #GASen modeling ride:

@ADincgor -- the model's co-creator
@joe__gantt, who also models it and has given us the precinct adjustment for our model
@thunderousprof and @dooraven, who track early voting reporting with us
[1/]

@EconWanabe

@EconWanabe, @Eggymceggerson3 and @umichvoter99, who track the backlogs and outstanding ballots and follow the data just as closely.
@krazgreinetz, who's done a great job writing on/tracking this.
@EScrimshaw, who was the first to yell at me about why our initial model was wrong

@OpenModelProj

@OpenModelProj, who have really done a standout job in improving model transparency
@DFMresearch, who's been modeling this on the side as well
@nolesfan2011 and @elium2, who have walked me through several key GA metrics and voting procedures
@JDubwub for his great graphics

Read 9 tweets

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

4 Jan

Here's what I wonder:

Given that Democrats still have most of their election day voters from November who haven't voted yet, the GOP probably needs 1.1M voters tomorrow, IMO, to have a fighting shot, and even then they need to drive up the margins.

Where does that come from?

The GOP has had a serious turnout problem during all of early voting. If your argument is that many have switched their vote to election day, fine -- I agree to some extent! But that ignores the fact that many just won't vote. And not everyone who plans to vote will.

So who does that help?

My gut feeling is that people here overestimate the red skew on election day in margin. There's an argument to be made that Democrats shouldn't expect their election day vote to crater as much. And white rural voters are awful with turnout in general.

Read 4 tweets