Thread by @ryanmatsumoto1

Forced to choose with no Tossups, I’ll go with:

Tilt D
Ossoff by 2
Warnock by 2

3 key data points to this election:

#1: Perdue edged out Ossoff by 1.78 points in the first round.
#2: Early vote data shows strong initial Democratic turnout, especially with Black voters.
#3: Polls give Democrats a *very slight* edge.

#1 favors GOP and #2/3 favor Democrats.

The ratings are based on my confidence in each side winning rather than the expected margins.

There's a lot of uncertainty in this election, and there are very strong arguments in favor of Republicans pulling this off.

https://twitter.com/ElGoatOfGoats/status/1346272276925329409?s=20

This is true, but a few points:
- The declines in Hispanic/Asian shares of the early vote are relatively small.
- Hispanics/Asians in Georgia are more like 2:1 Democratic rather than 9:1.
- Black voters are a much bigger portion of the Georgia electorate.

https://twitter.com/AzizSk91/status/1346276365201498112?s=20

From the 2018 general election -> runoff, Hispanic/Asian vote shares dropped off a cliff.

Hispanics: 2.26% -> 1.17%
Asians: 1.70% -> 1.17%

This contributed to Republicans gaining 3.37% of margin in the Secretary of State race.

This does not appear to be happening this year.