Thread by @ryanmatsumoto1

I would say that the strongest argument in favor of Republicans is that Perdue won the first round by 1.78 points.

The pro-D counterargument is that early voting turnout data is strong for Democrats.

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https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1345543098105937920?s=20

A lot of this comes down to how revealing you think the early vote data is.

On one hand, many people have been burned by EV analysis in the past. The GOP can just show up on Election Day.

But there are a few factors that make EV potentially more interesting this time...

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First, we have a decent baseline comparison of the November election. It's recent enough that there probably aren't a ton of people changing their minds.

This makes Early Vote analysis better than comparing 2012 to 2016, for example, when many people switched sides.

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Second, a pretty large share of the Georgia vote is cast early (80% in the general election) in the COVID-era. This is much more than in 2018 (54%) or 2016 (59%).

Maybe it's just as simple as "Democrats, especially Black voters, are more enthusiastic about this election."

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But still, I do have doubts about Early Vote analysis. The possibility that Republicans turn out big on Election Day is very real - more so than I think a lot of people on my timeline would like to believe.

And Early Vote analysis cannot account for the persuasion aspect.

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A final thing I'll note is that the factors that make Early Vote analysis *potentially intriguing* in this election (a very recent baseline + high % voting early + COVID) could also make Early Vote analysis less predictive and even more fuzzy in future elections.

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