The explanation for 18 of 19 'bellwether counties' breaking their streak of voting for the winner is pretty simple.
Compared to the country as a whole, bellwether counties are substantially whiter (82% vs. 60%) and less college educated (22% vs 32%).
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Compared to the country as a whole, bellwether counties are substantially whiter (82% vs. 60%) and less college educated (22% vs 32%).
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
In the past, white working class voters voted more like the country as a whole, making these counties a good barometer for the country.
But in 2016, Trump made massive gains with white voters without a college degree, helping him win many bellwether counties by double-digits.
But in 2016, Trump made massive gains with white voters without a college degree, helping him win many bellwether counties by double-digits.
The bellwether counties actually became unrepresentative of America in 2016, when they voted 16 points to the right of the nation (versus 1 point to the left of the nation in 2012).
They only retained their bellwether status that year because Trump narrowly won the election.
They only retained their bellwether status that year because Trump narrowly won the election.
In 2020, Trump continued to dominate in bellwether counties because of his strength with white working class voters. But Biden won the election because of gains in the suburbs.
Even if Biden had won by 10 points, Trump likely would have still won most of the bellwether counties.
Even if Biden had won by 10 points, Trump likely would have still won most of the bellwether counties.
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