Happy Election Day (again), #Georgia! The polls haven't opened yet, but 3,093,375 Georgians have already cast ballots in the #GASenateRunoffs. That's 78% of the early vote we saw in the November general election.
A #GARunoff record 1 million Black voters cast ballots early, compared to 1.2 million in the general. However, a drop-off of only 15% is better than the 25% drop-off in early voting for whites. Over 80k and 94k Latinxs and Asian Americans have voted, already records for a runoff.
Over 124k Georgians who didn't vote in November have already voted. An estimated 48% are white, 41% Black, 4% Latinx, and 5% Asian. This includes over 27,000 18-24 year olds. #gapol#youthvote
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Merging general results, the voter file, and vote history data, it's clear drop-off among white Republicans drives the racial differences in #GASenateRunoff turnout I've identified throughout early voting. (1/x) #gapol
First, everyone needs to exit the coastal mindset re: white voters. In GA, there are only 44 precincts where whites are more than 80% of the voters and Perdue got less than 40% of the vote, for a grand total of about 85,000 white voters concentrated in DeKalb and Fulton. (2/x)
OTOH, 1.4 million white voters live in the 850 precincts that are >80% white and voted more than 60% for Perdue. These are the precincts I'll be watching tonight. (3/x)