Effects on Tesla/TSLA of today's US Senate runoff elections in Georgia.
1/
Polls are showing razor thin margins and the results won't be known for days: initially Republican incumbents are likely to lead, because in-person votes are counted first, which votes lean Republican.
1/
Polls are showing razor thin margins and the results won't be known for days: initially Republican incumbents are likely to lead, because in-person votes are counted first, which votes lean Republican.
2/
But once mail-in votes are counted too we'll know the final result - possibly within the next 2-3 days. The election is still (way) too close to call.
But once mail-in votes are counted too we'll know the final result - possibly within the next 2-3 days. The election is still (way) too close to call.
3/
"Conventional wisdom" is that if Democrats win both senate seats and take control of the Senate, then there will be a market-wide selloff, TSLA included, because of more taxes.
I believe those expectations are incorrect.
"Conventional wisdom" is that if Democrats win both senate seats and take control of the Senate, then there will be a market-wide selloff, TSLA included, because of more taxes.
I believe those expectations are incorrect.
4/
Here's a (long) list of effects that Democratic control of the senate would have on Tesla:
✅ Green New Deal: trillions going into the renewable economy, where Tesla is positioned perfectly in several sectors: energy storage, energy generation & vehicle transport.
Here's a (long) list of effects that Democratic control of the senate would have on Tesla:
✅ Green New Deal: trillions going into the renewable economy, where Tesla is positioned perfectly in several sectors: energy storage, energy generation & vehicle transport.
5/
✅ $2,000 stimulus checks + vaccinations would trigger a sustained bull market until the Fed sees a good recovery from Covid damage, which could be in 2022-2023.
2021 to the Roaring Twenties: "hold my beer". 🍺
✅ $2,000 stimulus checks + vaccinations would trigger a sustained bull market until the Fed sees a good recovery from Covid damage, which could be in 2022-2023.
2021 to the Roaring Twenties: "hold my beer". 🍺
6/
✅ US auto buying deferred purchases in 2020 were around 2 million cars due to Covid. In 2021 those "missing" units will be bought by consumers, and a higher percentage of those will convert to EVs - which benefits Tesla as they scale GF1, Fremont, Kato Road and GF5.
✅ US auto buying deferred purchases in 2020 were around 2 million cars due to Covid. In 2021 those "missing" units will be bought by consumers, and a higher percentage of those will convert to EVs - which benefits Tesla as they scale GF1, Fremont, Kato Road and GF5.
7/
✅ Democrats would have the legislative majority to eliminate the current $7,500 anti-incentive federal tax credit non-Tesla, non-GM EV buyers receive to not buy a Tesla/Bolt, and extend the $7,500 EV federal tax credits to Tesla/GM customers again.
✅ Democrats would have the legislative majority to eliminate the current $7,500 anti-incentive federal tax credit non-Tesla, non-GM EV buyers receive to not buy a Tesla/Bolt, and extend the $7,500 EV federal tax credits to Tesla/GM customers again.
8/
✅ High profile Democrats such as Pete Buttigieg are Tesla owners, so while there's Tesla hate from some Democrats such as Sanders, it's not one-sided. Elon supported Yang, a Democratic presidential candidate - while very few billionaires risked favoring any party in 2020.
✅ High profile Democrats such as Pete Buttigieg are Tesla owners, so while there's Tesla hate from some Democrats such as Sanders, it's not one-sided. Elon supported Yang, a Democratic presidential candidate - while very few billionaires risked favoring any party in 2020.
9/
✅ Higher taxation is a risk, but modern Dems are more of the MMT money printing bend, and with just a single vote majority in the Senate, the most conservative Democratic senator will dictate tax policy - and there's a lot of anti-taxation ones with big stock holdings ...
✅ Higher taxation is a risk, but modern Dems are more of the MMT money printing bend, and with just a single vote majority in the Senate, the most conservative Democratic senator will dictate tax policy - and there's a lot of anti-taxation ones with big stock holdings ...
10/
✅ With Democrats enacting stimulative policy & a continued bull market the USD would weaken significantly, and a weaker dollar helps Tesla a lot, as most of their expenses are USD denominated, while ~half of their income is non-USD. This could be a tailwind in Q4 already.
✅ With Democrats enacting stimulative policy & a continued bull market the USD would weaken significantly, and a weaker dollar helps Tesla a lot, as most of their expenses are USD denominated, while ~half of their income is non-USD. This could be a tailwind in Q4 already.
11/
𝐓𝐋;𝐃𝐑: Should Democrats win control of the senate (which is a big if), I don't think a big TSLA selloff is likely, all other things equal, because the net of these factors is highly favorable to the biggest renewable energy sector company in the U.S.
𝐓𝐋;𝐃𝐑: Should Democrats win control of the senate (which is a big if), I don't think a big TSLA selloff is likely, all other things equal, because the net of these factors is highly favorable to the biggest renewable energy sector company in the U.S.
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