More from @globalhlthtwit

Anthony Costello

@globalhlthtwit

4 Jan

The PM says all frontline workers, people aged 70+ and people with serious underlying conditions will be vaccinated by mid-February. That’s 13 million, so 2 million per week. Potentially doable if GPs are supported with staff, volunteers funding and supplies. (1)

We must see a generous allowance funded by Treasury for isolation when infected or a contact. Without it, transmission will remain high increasing the risk of vaccine resistance. If not, could be the costliest mistake of the whole pandemic. (2)

Border screening must be made much tighter. Especially to identify new aggressive strains from other countries. (3)

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Anthony Costello

@globalhlthtwit

3 Jan

Modellers believe that spreading out our limited supply of vaccine as single doses for 3 months will save up to 6000 lives. One concern though is whether single doses might lead to 'vaccine resistance' through virus mutation. (1)

If we assume that over the next 12 weeks 12-20 million people get one dose of a vaccine and are told or believe it gives 90% protection what % will actually go for a second jab? We might assume second dose coverage is at best 70%. (2)

That means between 4 and 6.7 million people might have fading protection. Will the risk of creating a vaccine resistant mutant in this group of people, which could spread rapidly to 7 billion people around the world, outweigh the benefits of 6000 deaths prevented. (3)

Read 14 tweets

Anthony Costello

@globalhlthtwit

28 Dec 20

We need more information on the immunisation plan. In the two weeks from Dec 8-20 we immunised 616,000 people, say 52,000 per day. With the new Covid variant we might assume up to 70% coverage to achieve herd immunity (1).

70% of 68 million people = 48 million people who need 2 doses one month apart. That is 96 million doses.
If we just vaccinate the over 65s (12m), front line workers (2m) and people with underlying conditions (8m) we shall need 22 million x 2 = 44 million doses. (2)

At current rates it will take 846 days to fully vaccinate 22 million people + 1846 days to achieve herd immunity. WAY TOO LONG! So how many jabs per day to vaccinate high risk 22 million people in say 3 months (13 weeks)? Answer: 484,000 doses per day, working 7 days per week.(3)

Read 7 tweets

Anthony Costello

@globalhlthtwit

6 Nov 20

Scientific models vary according to the assumptions made. Compare here the projections for Covid19 deaths under four different epidemiological models (Imperial, LSHTM, Warwick, and Public Health England/Cambridge) and the dynamic causal model of Professor Karl Friston. (1)

Here are the four epidemiology scenario models which all show much higher daily death rates than the 'first wave' (dotted line). These informed government policy. (2)

This slide shown to COBR shows the steady rise in death rates up to the first wave peak in about one month's time. (3)

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Anthony Costello

@globalhlthtwit

5 Nov 20

From the Office of Statistics regulation: In the context of the pandemic there are three things which governments should consistently do to support transparency: (1)
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/osr-state…

1. where data are used publicly, the sources of these data or the data themselves should be published alongside any press briefing and associated slides to allow people to understand their strengths and limitations (2)

2. where models are referred to publicly, particularly to inform significant policy decisions, the model outputs, methodologies and key assumptions should be published at the same time (3)

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