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6 Jan, 6 tweets, 1 min read
Ready to overreact to small sample sizes? Miller County, GA is one of the few reporting complete results. It is heavily GOP and the total vote is 74% of general election turnout (compare that to 85% reported by Fulton). A very small, but not good sign for the GOP.
Wayne County, GA (also heavily GOP) turned out at 79% of general election turnout. Again, if the reports of Fulton at 85% and DeKalb at >90% are accurate, the GOP cannot like these numbers.
Brantley County turned out at 86% of GE turnout. Better for the GOP than the other 100% reporting GOP counties, but still not the overwhelming margins the GOP will need. A long ways to go with this race still, these are just breadcrumbs.
Irwin County, 80% of GE turnout.
Dawson County, a heavily GOP county north of Atlanta metro, turned out at 88% of general election turnout. The GOP will need more of those performances to win this race (and will need metro Atlanta to not come out at 90% or above general election turnout).
Franklin County, another GOP county with >10k voters turns out at 85% GE. The GOP needs better turnout performances, or to win a surprising share in metro Atlanta. The former is more possible than the latter, but I'm still not seeing anything that should make the GOP happy.

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Tom Bonier Profile picture
6 Jan
Clay County, GA is a rural African-American county. It turned out at 91.2% of general election turnout, higher than any GOP county I have seen report so far. The rural Black vote came out.
Macon County, another rural African-American county, turned out at 92% of their general election turnout. I am yet to find an encouraging sign for the GOP.
Randolph County, GA, another rural African-American county, turned out at an astounding 96% of general election turnout. We saw this in the early vote - as Black voters accounted for 40% of the non-general election early voters. Just incredible.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
5 Jan
Where do things stand in Georgia as we head into Election Day? First the TLDR version - through historic levels of turnout for a runoff election, with African-American voters leading the way, Dems can win both seats. But it will take one more day of high Dem turnout. Thread:
First, turnout by party. Using modeled partisanship, Dems improved upon their general election early vote share by 2.8 pts. In terms of raw votes, the Dem margin in modeled party is approx. 206k votes better than the general election (when Perdue ran 88k votes ahead of Ossoff).
How have Dems built an advantage in the early vote? Historic turnout from African-American voters. They increased their share of the early vote by 2.9 pts relative to the general election. White college voters increase by 0.1 pts. Meanwhile, white non-college turnout has lagged.
Read 11 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
21 Dec 20
Georgia Senate Runoff Early Vote Update -
Black voters are turning out in huge numbers. While the overall turnout is at 81% of turnout at this point in the general election, Black turnout is at 86%. AAPI and Latino turnout had been lagging, but is now closing the gap.
Similarly, the youth vote had been lagging badly behind the general election benchmarks, but with the historic levels of early in person voting starting a week ago, the gap is almost entirely closed now (which is remarkable).
Quick update - we were comparing day 15 general election vote totals to day 16 runoff totals. Meaning the runoff early vote is actually a larger share of the general election turnout. Will update these stats shortly.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
17 Dec 20
Add another to the list! With Michigan vote history in hand, we can now say that voters under the age of 30 expanded their share of the electorate there, over 2016, by 2pts. That's about 180k more younger voters casting a ballot than did in '16.
And another one. Young voters expanded their share of the electorate in Louisiana as well. So far young voters are 8 for 8 in states where we have full vote history and I've run the numbers. More states to come...
Okay, make that 12 for 12. Young voters also expanded their share of the electorate over '16 in AK, NE, NM, and OK. I'm yet to find a state where the youth vote didn't surge by more than overall turnout.
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
16 Dec 20
Early in person turnout in GA has exceeded general election early turnout for each of the first two days. Some of this (8.4% of early in person) is mail voters from the general switching to early in person.
A small share of early in person voters from the first two days of voting didn't vote in the general - 6.352 voters. These "new" voters are modeled at +9.4 Dem, as compared to the overall early voting universe, at +3.8 Dem.
It's difficult to draw conclusions from comparing the runoff early turnout to the general, as we will undoubtedly see people switching vote modes. But we can say that Black voters are accounting for a larger share of the vote now, relative to this same point in the general. Image
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
4 Dec 20
You've probably read a lot about white voters in the GA suburbs lately. But did you know that the county with the biggest swing towards Dems this year, nationally, was Henry County, GA? Clinton won it by 4 pts, while Biden won it by 20. Some things you should know about Henry...
The first thing you should know about how Henry County, GA became the county with the largest swing to Dems, nationally is that it didn't happen overnight. Stacey Abrams swung it by 12 pts towards Dems in her 2018 gubernatorial bid, carrying it by 16.
Was there a huge surge in white college educated turnout that made Henry County, GA the biggest Dem surge county in the US? No. The white college vote share dropped very slightly, while the overall white vote share dropped by over 9 pts. It was voters of color who surged.
Read 5 tweets

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