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Bernard L. Fraga

6 Jan, 3 tweets, 3 min read

In precincts with mail, EIP, and ED votes all counted, Ossoff is doing 0.9 points better than he did in Nov. Those precincts are disproportionately Republican, and ED turnout is much stronger for Democrats than (I) expected in outstanding areas.

In these fully reported precincts, Election Day turnout is 24% over what it was in the general. Every analyst I talked to thought Republicans needed to beat their Nov ED turnout to win, and they did. The unexpected factor was high ED turnout for Democrats.

@cnn

Oh @cnn just said this! Well, fwiw, I think it's over. I agree with @gelliottmorris's projection that @ReverendWarnock will defeat @KLoeffler and @ossoff will defeat @Perduesenate. #GASenateRunoff #gapol

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Bernard L. Fraga

@blfraga

5 Jan

Merging general results, the voter file, and vote history data, it's clear drop-off among white Republicans drives the racial differences in #GASenateRunoff turnout I've identified throughout early voting. (1/x) #gapol

First, everyone needs to exit the coastal mindset re: white voters. In GA, there are only 44 precincts where whites are more than 80% of the voters and Perdue got less than 40% of the vote, for a grand total of about 85,000 white voters concentrated in DeKalb and Fulton. (2/x)

OTOH, 1.4 million white voters live in the 850 precincts that are >80% white and voted more than 60% for Perdue. These are the precincts I'll be watching tonight. (3/x)

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