In today's Future Relationship with the EU Committee, the future of financial services was of key concern. From @SamuelMarcLowe: "My view earlier in the year was that if there was a deal it would increase the likelihood of financial services equivalence being granted..." 1/
"But that doesn’t seem to be the case. I believe the EU will grant [equivalence] in areas where it is beneficial for it to, but otherwise it's not in the mood to grant access to the UK above what it usually grants to 3rd countries." @SamuelMarcLowe 2/
"My view is that in the long run the EU’s aim is to have all customer-facing financial operations targeted towards EU customers to be based in the EU. This is going to be a slow leakage of economic activity that would otherwise take place in the UK." @SamuelMarcLowe 3/
"The mood [on financial services equivalence] seems to have changed and now I am much more concerned about it." @SamuelMarcLowe 4/4
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At today's Future Relationship with the European Union Committee - we're hearing from @CSBarnard24 that the deal has a slightly "alice in wonderland quality" about it - nothing really appears quite as it first looks. If you compare to what we had until 1 Jan, it falls short. 1/
For example, there's a statement that the dispute resolution mechanisms doesn’t apply, but if you plough on until the end you see that some chunks of the DSM are actually incorporated over non-regression provisions. @CSBarnard24 2/
From @SamuelMarcLowe: "the premise of this agreement [is] to remove tariffs & do v little to remove barriers to trade and services. If you’re prioritising the economic status quo and economic integration with Europe then of course this deal is going to disappoint you." 3/
1: 2020, a thread. Like everyone, B4B faced countless curve-balls in 2020. Here are some things we learned, that helped us increase our influence in the toughest year we have lived through /
2: Act quickly: As Covid fears grew, we had a contingency plan ready by March 2, long before lockdown was a threat. By March 12, work from home was a thing, and on March 15 we closed the office completely /
3: Put the team first: In a crisis, you need the team more than ever. We got our staff from overseas back home early, trialled work-from-home early, put health (inc mental health) and working policies in place early, so everyone was clear what was happening /
Our major new analysis of the EU-UK trade deal highlights ten areas that must be addressed urgently to deal with non-tariff trade barriers looming come January 1st. bestforbritain.org/2020tradereport
Although the Johnson deal is better than a WTO arrangement, it will still result in ‘considerably higher barriers’ to trade.
@DavidHenigUK identifies areas of concern ranging from regulatory challenges and data issues to membership of the Erasmus scheme and climate change.
An extension to the current transition arrangements can be achieved by agreement w/ EU or as part of a phased deal implementation. Whatever the mechanism (& whether it's called extension, an implementation period or a deferment) we need extra time. Here's how that could work👇1/8
Firstly, the govt gave up our automatic right to an extension in June - & offering this is beyond Barnier’s remit - so it’d need to be signed off by the EU27 & wld need a legal opinion from European Court of Justice. 2/8
Secondly, the EU uses a legal basis for every treaty it strikes. For the current withdrawal agreement & transition period (which started when we left on 31 Jan 2020), the EU used Article 50. 3/8
Polling from Best for Britain shows extension has more than 2-to-1 backing. With Covid and Brexit double whammy getting worse, voters 'know UK is out of time'.
Only 18 per cent of voters back a no-deal outcome. Among Labour and Lib Dem supporters, that figure is a mere 4 per cent. Even among Leave voters, more want an agreement than favour no deal.