Thread by @JakeSherman

Man, what a time to start @PunchbowlNews — which we promise every day will be about power, people and politics w a BIG focus on the politics of governing.

A few highlights from Punchbowl AM this morning…. (bit.ly/3hAJJiy)

@PunchbowlNews Loeffler and Perdue bearhugged Trump, and it looks like they both got beat. Why are Republicans acting as if ‘Trump 2024’ is a sure thing if both of his candidates got smacked around in the South and he just lost the presidency?

@PunchbowlNews BTW: Today is the first anniversary of Loeffler becoming a senator. She spent tens of millions of dollars for one year in the Senate. For a finance professional, that was a horrible investment.

@PunchbowlNews Now Joe Biden seems likely to enter Washington with a Democratic House and Senate -- just like Barack Obama did in 2009, although with far tighter margins of control.

@PunchbowlNews And Democrats -- including incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi -- will have to ask themselves this question: what good is this political capital if you don’t spend it, and fast. They may lose the House in 2022 anyway, so why not push hard?

@PunchbowlNews Here are some immediate dynamics you need to watch:

The push to nuke the filibuster will be immediate. A 50-50 Democratic majority is far from the 60-vote threshold needed to pass nearly any bill.

@PunchbowlNews But let’s be clear: Dems will not likely be able to nuke the filibuster. There are enough Democrats -- Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana -- who have expressed skepticism that it’s a fantasy.

@PunchbowlNews Narrow majorities: The Senate is evenly divided for the first time since 2001, and their 11-seat House majority is the smallest Democratic margin of control in decades.

@PunchbowlNews So Democrats have to be realistic about what’s possible given those numbers, especially with Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy doing everything they can to get back into power.

House vs. Senate: The key to this Democratic majority will be for the House and Senate to stay on the same page, which is nearly impossible.

You already have progressives in the House pushing a bold plan for canceling all student debt. If you watched Congress in 2009-10, you saw this dynamic -- moderates vs. progressive -- rear its head frequently.

Schumer and AOC: We keep hammering this point, because it deserves hammering: the Senate majority leader could face a primary challenge by the most prominent progressive Democrat in the country.

Here are some big Democrat priorities and achievables:

Stimulus checks: If Democrats want to pass $2,000 checks, they can. It’ll be interesting to see how fast the incoming Biden administration wants to move on this. Will three be enough Republicans to back such a move to ensure quick action?

Another Covid rescue bill: This will be a Democratic priority in the first quarter of this year. But a Covid relief bill will have to be a negotiated settlement between the Four Corners -- Pelosi, Schumer, McConnell and McCarthy. ~1T

A tax/health care bill: One would have to guess that some large-scale tax and health care bill will be a huge Biden priority. If Dems don't blow up the filibuster, this could only get through the Hill as part of budget reconciliation, which requires a majority.

If they are smart, infrastructure: If Biden can learn anything from Trump it’s this: should start off by pushing a legislative priority that’s very, very popular. Infrastructure it is.

Trump tackled health care first, and came to regret it. Infrastructure is not nearly as easy the talkers would like you to believe, however. There are questions about funding -- raise the gas tax? -- and details on how to spend money.

You know who is probably feeling good this morning? McCarthy. When one party controls all the levers of power in government, the opposition party usually wins the House.