@TimTravis2@AlexBerenson 1/ Depends on the technology used. A dead-virus vaccine would seem the closest to natural immunity in terms of producing a heterogenous response, although even that would not be as good because you wouldn't get the localized protection against emerging mutants.
@TimTravis2@AlexBerenson 2/ Not sure if any of the other candidates are dead virus vaccines. Supposedly, the narrowly-focused vaccines have the advantage of avoiding some of the worst triggers of the Vaccine Induced Enhancement which plagued the development of SARS vaccine, where prior vaccination turns
@TimTravis2@AlexBerenson 3/ what would normally be a mild respiratory infection into a life-threatening condition -- I understand in some of the experiments with the prototype SARS vaccine, all the ferrets that got the vaccine died on exposure to the coronavirus.
@TimTravis2@AlexBerenson 4/ Anyway, the usual technological trade offs apply -- high risk of vaccine induced enhancement turning a mild disease into something deadly, or the more focused approach Moderna and Pfizer went with which more or less guarantees the emergence of new, resistant mutant strains.
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@EnjoyTheDecline 1/ My concern would be that the approval process has been rushed in order to field the vaccine in time to be relevant -- and then, likely only slightly relevant in the big picture -- for a disease that mostly represents a way of slightly accelerating death from old age, and for
@EnjoyTheDecline 2/ which hundreds of millions will have to be vaccinated. I would personally take a wait-and-see approach -- let's see what the real-world incidence of side effects is after this has been given to a few million human guinea pigs, and how serious an issue C19 remains after it
@EnjoyTheDecline 3/ has fallen into an endemic equilibrium -- i.e., is there much resurgence in the late fall of next year. Also, I'd like to have better ways of evaluating whether I likely have had the disease and developed significant immunity -- a number of papers have demonstrated that
@VanGennepD@ADreyzen@FatEmperor 1/ Herd immunity in general just refers to the check on the spread of a contagion produced by rising immunity depleting available susceptible individuals.
@VanGennepD@ADreyzen@FatEmperor 2/ The herd immunity threshold is mathematically the percentage of the population which must be immune for an epidemic to go from the growth phase to recession.
@VanGennepD@ADreyzen@FatEmperor 3/ Clearly the epidemic in Sweden (and many other places) has been in recession for months, viewed at the national level. That doesn't mean that it's in recession everywhere in the country, just that net-net, declines outweigh new growth as the virus percolates into new regions.
@DocMcQuinn First, 20% by antibodies means 60%-100% actual infected & recovered, based on recent studies that looked at what fraction of recovered have detectable T-cell & mucosal Ab but not serum Ab responses -- a finding that's also consistent with several other observations and studies.
@DocMcQuinn NYC showed 20%-25% IgG+ in two randomized surveys conducted by the NYS Dept of Health as far back as late April, so presumably the great majority of NYC residents have been infected by now -- not surprising, given their high death toll & the total collapse of their death curve.
@DocMcQuinn Stockholm blood donors were 30% positive for COVID-19-specific T cells in May (about 3X the percentage of seropositives) and the Swedish FHM estimated a few days ago that the number of infected is now about 40%, which seems reasonable given another couple of months have passed.