Congress is much more likely to pass substantive immigration reforms this Congress. Key Senate Republicans have lost their positions to object to passage of bills containing liberalized immigration provisions, and it's clear that the House will act aggressively.
The most likely method will be changes to immigration enforcement policy & legalizations that will be included in must-pass legislation like appropriation bills. These legalizations could include almost anything up to and including the Dream Act/green cards for TPS recipients
But I think the preferred method for the Dream Act/Dream & Promise Act would be a standalone bill initially with other legalization provisions on must-pass bills. Dreamers have bipartisan support and are the most likely legalization to hit 60 senate votes.
The House is also likely to repass the Farm Workforce Modernization Act, and key senate Republicans including some surprises(!) have already committed to working for a bipartisan agreement in the Senate on H-2A reform and legalization of farm workers.
The Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act already passed both chambers last Congress, but I'm optimistic that now that Grassley/McConnell are no longer in a position to object that the bill will expand the total number of green cards
A more comprehensive bill that expands border enforcement, interior enforcement, mandates E-Verify universally, restricts chain migration, ends the diversity lottery, or creates new visa programs is much less likely to reach the 60 vote threshold.
That type of bill (basically, the 2013 bill with a path to citizenship for all immigrants without status) will run into problems with both parties right and left flanks and probably not make it across the finish line. I think priority is discrete attainable reforms fast.
Of course, those discrete reforms could include millions of people! So don't downplay the possibilities!
I shouldn't neglect the numerous, numerous smaller changes that could find their way into bills that before would have received objections from both the Senate GOP and the White House.
This moment is very different from 2009-2010 because the Democratic Party is a very different party. The "Blue Dogs" are almost all just regular Republicans now, and many establishment Republicans are now liberal Democrats. Democratic voters are now unified by an expansive agenda
Any legislation to expand work visas beyond the existing categories will be met with bipartisan opposition outside of comprehensive immigration reform, which is unlikely.
https://twitter.com/mkolken/status/1347224753048793088
Beyond maybe the Dream Act, I wouldn't expect to see any major reforms before COVID-19 is under control. I hope that happens soon! The fact that COVID-19 relief just passed under Trump costs an important opportunity to legalize essential workers.
https://twitter.com/chad0525/status/1347225852271075328
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