2/21 - Belgium is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.86), at medium levels of activity, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
700 vaccinated as of Jan 02.
3/21. Germany is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), at medium levels, with remaining very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
367,331 vaccinated as of Jan 05.
4/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), at high levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
63,312 vaccinated as of Jan 05.
5/21. The Netherlands is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.89), at high levels of activity, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown to at least January 19.
Vaccine campaign has started. No data reported.
6/21. Switzerland is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.96), at high levels of activity, with decreasing although high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
More details on 7 cantons in:
8/21. Italy seems is experiencing an increase again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.09), at high levels of activity, plateauing at very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
307,182 vaccinated as of Jan 06.
7/21. France is experiencing a rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), at high levels, plateauing at high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
5,000 vaccinated as of Jan 05.
9/21. Spain is experiencing a rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.15), at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
139,339 vaccinated as of Jan 05.
10/21. The UK, for one full month, is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.2), at very high levels, with alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more d.
3rd Lockdown due to increase in transmission with the variant B.1.1.7.
944,539 vaccinated as of Dec 27.
11/21. Ireland is experiencing the most rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Europe (R-eff=1.48), at very high levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
4,000 vaccinated as of Jan 04.
12/21. Tunisia is experiencing an increase again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), at medium levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
13/21. South Africa is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, with very high to alarming (by early next week) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown changes due to new variant suspected to cause increase in transmission.
14/21. Israel will continue to experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.29), at high to very high (by the weekend) levels, with high to very high (by the weekend) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
1.48 m vaccinated as of Jan 05.
15/21. Russia will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.95), at medium levels of activity, with decreasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Russia begins vaccination campaign with Sputnik V. 800,000 vaccinated as of Jan 02.
16/21. Japan, experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), close to leave its safety zone, with very low to low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Insights on
17/21. South Korea will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (with <800 cases/day, R-eff=0.89), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
18/21. Canada will see an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at low pace (R-eff=1.04), but at high levels, with high to very high (by early next week) level of mortality, for 7 more d.
Forecast for 4 provinces in:
19/21. The US is experiencing an increase again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Forecast for 7 states in the thread:
20/21. Argentina is experiencing a rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), at high levels, with high to medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
52,195 vaccinated as of Jan 06.
21/21. Uruguay is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), at medium to high (by next mid-week) levels, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
22/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard to #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, for at least 7 more days.
23/21.
Read forecasting for other countries by following @KristenN_06 and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop 4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
24/21.
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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1/5 -La France aurait l’occasion et les moyens de développer une ambition “contagieuse” pour le reste de l’Europe vis-à-vis de la stratégie vaccinale. Voici une proposition en complément de la doctrine actuelle du pays.
2/5 - La France sait faire voter 38 des 54 millions de ses citoyens de plus de 18 ans, en 10 heures, sur une seule journée. Elle peut organiser dans chaque commune, sous l’impulsion de ses 36000 maires un dispositif semblable pour vacciner tous les adultes volontaires.
3/5 - Mais il faut pour cela savoir produire un vaccin pour près de 2x54 millions de doses. Cela demanderait 4 à 5 mois à un laboratoire qui a le savoir faire - comme Sanofi-Pasteur - qui devrait alors disposer d’un accès facilité à l’un des vaccins approuvés. Disons juin 2021.
2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.79), at high to medium (by next mid-week) levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
112,427 vaccinated as of Jan 08.
3/21 - Belgium is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), at medium levels of activity, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
700 vaccinated as of Jan 02.
1/7 - “The EU has hit back at criticism from member states that its bloc-wide vaccine procurement plan has failed to secure enough doses to enable a rapid start. [...] EC had been overly cautious in reaching agreements with vaccine manufact. last year”. ft.com/content/c1575e…
2/7 - “The EU official’s intervention came as a blame game escalated over the slow pace of the vaccine rollout in many European countries. While Britain has vaccinated more than 1m people, as of Tuesday, Germany, Spain and France had vaccinated 367,00, 139,000 and 5,000 people.”
3/7 - “The EU, with a population of almost 450m, has assembled a portfolio totalling more than 2bn doses of seven different vaccines. But investments by the EU to help companies cover upfront costs appear to have been relatively modest compared with those agreed by the US.”
2/21 - Belgium is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), at medium levels of activity, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
700 vaccinated as of Jan 02.
3/21. Germany is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at high levels, with remaining very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
417,060 vaccinated as of Jan 06.
2/10 - Massachusetts will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), at high levels, with increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/10 - Vermont will experience a surge again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.27), at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
1/5 - Canada – Jan 08 to Jan 14 –
The country will experience an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with very high levels of mortality.
4 Prov. in the thread.
Forecast for 13 Prov/Territ on: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
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2/5 - Quebec does not seem to succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/5 - Ontario will see an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.09), at high levels, with increasing high to very high (by next mid-week) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.