I'm getting some questions about this, so here you go: We do not have sequence evidence of a new, more transmissible "US variant" - it seems to be a misinterpretation.
Still, more sequencing in the US (& globally) will help us better track existing & emerging #SARSCoV2 variants!
Importantly: you can have spikes & rises in #SARSCoV2 infections without needing a new variant. We can see this clearly in Europe in autumn: we have a good idea of the variants circulating & no new (or old) variant is responsible. It was likely weather-related.
Similarly, season & holiday related changes in travel & behaviour, changing restrictions/mandates, school & university terms, & 'restriction fatigue' - just to name a few - can play a role in #SARSCoV2 case numbers. We can't & shouldn't blame every rise on a new variant.
Politically this can appear an 'easy answer' as a new, more transmissible variant is 'nobody's fault'. But #SARSCoV2 needs *us* to transmit: our behaviour is one of the largest determinants of how much it can spread. We must own that, & do what we can to lower cases!
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To add to the excitement of your Saturday evening, the focal S:N501 build is now updated with data from 8th Jan, including 48 new seqs in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 #b117) & 501Y.V2.
There are 46 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1, from the Netherlands, Italy, Israel, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, the USA, and Luxembourg.
And 2 new non-South African sequences in 501Y.V2, from Australia for the first time.
2/12
In 501Y.V1:
Ireland has 4 new sequences (orange). 2 sit separately but are identical, indicating an additional introduction. 2 link to a previous sequence (green), 1 mutation away each. This could indicate location transmission, unsampled diversity, or a common exposure.
There are 22 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1, including for the first time from Luxembourg (3), & additional seqs from Singapore (1), Australia (4), France (12), & Switzerland (2).
2/14
First, Luxembourg has 3 sequences in 501Y.V1 for the first time. Each represents a separate introduction.
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 from the Netherlands, Italy, Hong Kong, Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA, Switzerland, Brazil, and the first sequence from 501Y.V1 in Oman.
Mutations at nucleotide 23012 causes changes in the amino-acid (AA) at position 484 in Spike. We can see here it changes from E (green) to Q (yellow), K (blue), & R (red).
2/8
Changes at position 484 are found most prominently in the 501Y.V2 variant (originating in South Africa), ID by @Tuliodna@rjlessells & team
as well as in a cluster of sequences primarily in Brazil, ID by @atrvlncc & team
The latest focal S:N501 build is now up! It includes data from 4 Jan 2021.
We have new sequences in 501Y.V1/B.1.1.7 from Denmark, Singapore, Australia, Italy, Spain, France, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, Jamaica, Luxembourg, Pakistan & the USA.
Denmark has 43 new sequences (in orange). These indicate additional introductions, as well as further expansion of the existing large local transmission cluster we saw previously (shown in zoomed divergence view).
2/12
10 new sequences from Portugal (orange) indicate additional, separate introductions.
European countries have likely bought time by stopping/restricting UK flights to reduce 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) import. Vaccine rollouts are progressing, & spring is around the corner.
But what do the next few months have in store? What should we be preparing for? 🗓️🤔 #SARSCoV2
1/24
First, some good news: The fact we have a vaccine 💉 is fantastic🎉, & it will make a difference - but we likely won't have enough people vaccinated to really impact transmission levels in the next few months. We must hold fast to other methods until more are vaccinated.😷
2/24
More good news: Last spring & summer brought reductions in cases: the virus does seem seasonal.
This means spring🌸& summer🌞2021 should help reduce transmission📉, giving us a great window to scale-up vaccination before autumn🍂 & hopefully a break in strict restrictions.