Each day brings new challenges, but here's an update to the dedicated S.N501 build, using data from 6 Jan 2021 to keep you going.

There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) & 7 new non-South-African sequences in 501Y.V2.

1/14

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 from the Netherlands, Italy, Hong Kong, Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA, Switzerland, Brazil, and the first sequence from 501Y.V1 in Oman.

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…

2/14
Oman has their first sequence which falls into 501Y.V1:

3/14
Finland has 12 new sequences (orange), which mostly represent separate introductions. Zooming in (divergence view), we can see 3 of the new sequences are identical (red), which may indicate the cases are connected.

4/14
Sweden has 8 new sequences (orange), which indicate separate introductions.

5/14
Italy has 6 new sequences (orange), which indicate additional independent introductions.

6/14
Netherlands has 4 new sequences (orange), indicating 1 clear additional introduction. The other new sequences cluster with older sequences, possibly indicating local transmission.

7/14
Switzerland has 3 new sequences (orange). 1 is clearly a separate introduction.
Zooming (divergence view), we can see 2 of the new sequences differ by 1 mutation, & connect to a UK sequence. More info would be needed to conclusively determine if this is local transmission.

8/14
Brazil has 2 new sequences, 1 (marked) shows a new introduction. The other connects to a previous sequence. Zooming in (divergence view) we can see this more clearly - they are identical, and this may indicate local transmission.

9/14
Hong Kong, Germany and the USA (from New York), each have 1 new sequence (orange), indicating additional introductions.

10/14
Moving on to 501Y.V2, there are 7 new non-South-African sequences in 501Y.V2, from the United Kingdom (6) and Sweden (1).

11/14

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…
Sweden has a sequence in 501Y.V2 for the first time.

12/14
UK has 6 new sequences in 501Y.V2 (orange), including 1 from Scotland. Most indicate separate introductions, but 1 new seq links to the older 1 (blue). Zooming (divergence view), they are separated by 1 mutation. This could indicate local transmission or the same exposure.

13/14
As always, the graph of variants per country is updated (remember: as people are preferentially sequencing S:N501 samples, the proportions shown are not accurate outside of UK & Denmark!)

Additionally, the 'reduced UK' S:N501 build is updated!

14/14

github.com/hodcroftlab/co…

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More from @firefoxx66

9 Jan
I'm getting some questions about this, so here you go: We do not have sequence evidence of a new, more transmissible "US variant" - it seems to be a misinterpretation.

Still, more sequencing in the US (& globally) will help us better track existing & emerging #SARSCoV2 variants!
Importantly: you can have spikes & rises in #SARSCoV2 infections without needing a new variant. We can see this clearly in Europe in autumn: we have a good idea of the variants circulating & no new (or old) variant is responsible. It was likely weather-related.
Similarly, season & holiday related changes in travel & behaviour, changing restrictions/mandates, school & university terms, & 'restriction fatigue' - just to name a few - can play a role in #SARSCoV2 case numbers. We can't & shouldn't blame every rise on a new variant.
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
A brief update to the focal S:N501 builds to start your Friday off right! This one includes data from 7 Jan 21.

We have about 20 new sequences each in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 #b117) & 501Y.V2.

Let's take a look at the new sequences, starting with 501Y.V1

1/14

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla… Image
There are 22 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1, including for the first time from Luxembourg (3), & additional seqs from Singapore (1), Australia (4), France (12), & Switzerland (2).

2/14 Image
First, Luxembourg has 3 sequences in 501Y.V1 for the first time. Each represents a separate introduction.

3/14 Image
Read 14 tweets
5 Jan
Following some increased interest tonight in S:E484, a new focal build is now up!

This build is created by pulling out all sequences with a mutation at nucleotide 23012 & adding background sequences.

1/8

@jbloom_lab @Tuliodna

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…
Mutations at nucleotide 23012 causes changes in the amino-acid (AA) at position 484 in Spike. We can see here it changes from E (green) to Q (yellow), K (blue), & R (red).

2/8
Changes at position 484 are found most prominently in the 501Y.V2 variant (originating in South Africa), ID by @Tuliodna @rjlessells & team
as well as in a cluster of sequences primarily in Brazil, ID by @atrvlncc & team

3/8

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…
Read 8 tweets
5 Jan
The latest focal S:N501 build is now up! It includes data from 4 Jan 2021.

We have new sequences in 501Y.V1/B.1.1.7 from Denmark, Singapore, Australia, Italy, Spain, France, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, Jamaica, Luxembourg, Pakistan & the USA.

1/12

nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…
Denmark has 43 new sequences (in orange). These indicate additional introductions, as well as further expansion of the existing large local transmission cluster we saw previously (shown in zoomed divergence view).

2/12
10 new sequences from Portugal (orange) indicate additional, separate introductions.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
4 Jan
European countries have likely bought time by stopping/restricting UK flights to reduce 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) import. Vaccine rollouts are progressing, & spring is around the corner.

But what do the next few months have in store? What should we be preparing for? 🗓️🤔
#SARSCoV2

1/24
First, some good news: The fact we have a vaccine 💉 is fantastic🎉, & it will make a difference - but we likely won't have enough people vaccinated to really impact transmission levels in the next few months. We must hold fast to other methods until more are vaccinated.😷

2/24
More good news: Last spring & summer brought reductions in cases: the virus does seem seasonal.
This means spring🌸& summer🌞2021 should help reduce transmission📉, giving us a great window to scale-up vaccination before autumn🍂 & hopefully a break in strict restrictions.

3/24
Read 28 tweets
1 Jan
🎉Happy New Year!🎉

To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)

(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! 🎆)

1/23
The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.

2/23

S:N501 link
nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…

Image link
nextstrain.org/groups/neherla…
Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.

3/23
Read 24 tweets

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