Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #b117

Most recents (24)

⚠️VERY WORRIED FOR FLORIDA/US—More contagious #B117 is rising quickly, & exponentially replacing the old dying #SARSCoV2 common strain. B117 affects kids, & 64% more severe. B117 now over 40%—dominant in days. A new surge is coming. Florida inaction= Florida ➡️ US surge. #COVID19 Image
2) Been watching this B117 situation for 2 months. We already saw very worrisome signs in Miami Dade this week.
3) CDC director was warning about US surge looming because of #B117 too.
Read 11 tweets
Die Sonne scheint, der Frühling naht - ein Thread zur Ansteckungsgefahr mit #covid19 im Freien, besonders mit der Variante #B117.

Drei Dinge sind klar:
- draußen ist die Ansteckungswahrscheinlichkeit deutlich geringer
- sie ist nicht null
- #b117 ist deutlich ansteckender

1/14
Im Grundsatz hat sich nicht viel geändert. Es ist sinnvoll, für das eigene Verhalten Ansteckungen als statistische, zufällige Ereignisse zu betrachten. Kontakte bergen ein Ansteckungsrisiko, und auch sehr geringe Wahrscheinlichkeiten können eintreten.
2/14
Ich hatte die Konsequenzen daraus vor Monaten mal anhand von Würfeln erklärt. Jeder Kontakt ist ein Wurf mit einem Würfel, und wenn man sehr oft würfelt, kann man auch mit günstigen Würfeln irgendwann einen Treffer landen.
3/14

scilogs.spektrum.de/fischblog/waru…
Read 14 tweets
Dieses Staatsversagen und die Trägheit der politisch Verantwortlichen macht mich rasend wütend. 2,7 Millionen Impfdosen liegen rum, am Beginn der #DritteWelle und die Hausärzte sollen erst frühestens Ende März / Anfang April in die Impfungen eingebunden werden. [Thread] ...
Ein paar Gedanken dazu:

1. Warum die Hausäzte so spät? Weil im 2. Quartal deutlich mehr Impfstoff erwartet wird und dann die Priorisierungsstufen weitestgehend abgearbeitet sein sollen. So der Plan. Getreu dem Motto "Es ist besser, keinen zu impfen, als die falschen zu impfen"
... traut der Staat den Hausärzten nicht. Er erwartet nämlich, dass die aus eigenen Überlegungen heraus dann eben auch quer impfen und Priorisierungen aufgrund anderer Kriterien erstellen. Die nicht schlechter sein müssen. Da kommt dann eben der Jürgen, 45, Vater von 3 Kindern...
Read 15 tweets
Corona-Zahlen-Update 5.2.2021: 7-Tage-Inzidenz (blaue Treppe) steigt moderat weiter auf 69,7/100.000 bzw. 57838 Fälle um +5,2% gegenüber den 7 Tagen davor, 8262 pro Tag. Image
7-Tage-R-Wert (dunkelgrüne Treppe) leicht auf 1,03 gesunken. Image
1985 Tote in den den letzten 7 Tagen, 284/Tag, -14% gegenüber den 7 Tagen davor. Image
Read 27 tweets
📍STARK WARNING—“Whatever #SARSCoV2 variants summit that peak could be a considerably bigger problem than any variants that we know”—with “any combinations of increased transmissibility, altered virulence and/or ⬆️ capacity to escape population immunity.”
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) “The emergence & rapid rise in prevalence of three independent #SARSCoV2 '501Y lineages' #B117 #B1351 #P1 has prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionarily capacity to adapt to both rising population immunity and public health interventions such as vaccines & distancing.”
3) “Viruses giving rise to 501Y lineages have, presumably under intense natural selection following a shift in host environment, independently acquired multiple unique & convergent mutations. As a consequence all have gained properties that likely complicate control of #COVID19.”
Read 6 tweets
Anbei die Veränderung der 7T-Inzidenz für Brandenburg in der Woche vor/nach der Wiedereinführung der Präsenzpflicht an Grundschulen. RKI-Differenzierung der Altersgruppen nicht ideal, aber Tendenz sollte für jeden auf den ersten Blick ersichtlich sein. #PraesenzpflichtAussetzen Image
Fasst man die Altersgruppen mal nach Kita, Grund- und Sekundarschulen zusammen (in Brandenburg geht die Grundschule bis zur 6. Klasse!), wird es noch deutlicher:

Veränderung 7T-Inzidenz KW8 vs. KW7 (KW7 vs. KW6)
A01..A06: +74% (-19%)
A07..A12: +62% (-53%)
A13...A18: +14% (+2%)
In 🇦🇹 breitet sich das Coronavirus in der letzten Woche besonders unter Kindern, Jugendlichen und jungen Erwachsenen aus. Fünf- bis 24-Jährige stellen dort aktuell über 25% aller Infizierten.

In 🇩🇪 liegt diese Gruppe in KW8 schon bei 20% vs. 16% KW5!

vienna.at/immer-mehr-kin…
Read 4 tweets
JAPAN 🇯🇵 WARNS OF POTENTIAL “FOURTH WAVE”—Over 230 cases of highly infectious variant strains of the novel coronavirus have been confirmed in in Japan. Experts warning of a potential "fourth wave" should they continue to spread across the country. #COVID19
english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/03/0…
2) Here is one of the new Japan outbreaks of #B117 —linked to a school for kids under 10. This matches a lot of other trends on elevated B117 risk in kids.
3) Japan’s warning on #B117 potentially triggering another surge also matches what CDC director warns about B117 and a new surge in US too. See 🧵
Read 7 tweets
📍SCHOOL OUTBREAK OF #B117 in JAPAN 🇯🇵—Eleven people north of Tokyo have been infected with a new B117 #COVID19–none have any UK travel history. 6 cases were kids under 10. Ten of the infected all linked to a school for kids age <10. Matches kids trend. 🧵
mainichi.jp/english/articl…
2) This matches the latest UK 🇬🇧 data showing kids age 5-12 have the highest positivity of #COVID19. And in England, the #B117 is nearly 95-99% dominant variant.
3) Meanwhile, here is latest French data. Kids 0-9 have now the highest % of #B117 of any age group. And very sharp trend towards more B117 the younger one is.
Read 6 tweets
HIGHEST IN KIDS—newest French data this week shows #B117 is the most dominant & has the highest prevalence in kids ages 0-9. This matches data from 🇬🇧 (where B117 nearly completely dominant) showing highest #COVID19 incidence in kids. This also matches kids surge in 🇮🇹 & 🇮🇱. 🧵
2) Here is the newest UK data from England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 showing the highest positivity of #COVID19 in kids for the first time (this wasn’t true in the past). This again matches warnings we see elsewhere in the world. Leaders of each country have to acknowledge this.
3) and my god, #B117 has now pretty much dominated half of France 🇫🇷.
Read 10 tweets
📍MORE KIDS PER HOUSEHOLD ➡️ MORE RISK OF #COVID19: Danish study of 3 million adults—Increasing number of children, means much higher risk of #SARSCoV2 in adults household members. By high much?

📌2 young kids—13% ⬆️ risk

📌3+ young kids—42% ⬆️ risk
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) What about families with young kids but not older kids (age >6)? 31% ⬆️ increased risk

What about families with older kids but no young kids? Again, 31% ⬆️ increased risk.
3) Okay, what if we just look at households with young kids and no older kids? How does 2 or 3+ young kids compare versus 1 young kid?

📌Adults in households with 2 young kids: 22% ⬆️ risk of #COVID19

📌Adults in households with 3+ young kids: 54% ⬆️ risk of #COVID19
Read 10 tweets
📍”Children may be **drivers of #SARSCoV2 transmission** in the general population at the same level as adults”, says new Spain🇪🇸 study. While viral load was significantly higher in symptomatic than in asymptomatic adults—but in children, they were equal!
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) “Median SARS-COV-2 RNA loads were comparable between adults and children with COVID-19.

Median SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in asymptomatic children and adults was similar.”

➡️ kids are transmission vectors just as adults.
3) This is why it is concerning that kids now are the highest prevalence group for #COVID19 positivity in England, where #B117 is dominant. This wasn’t the case before. But B117 might be extra worrisome.
Read 7 tweets
UNDER-DIAGNOSIS IN KIDS—New CDC-study in Mississippi found actual number of kids infected with #COVID19 was much higher than testing reported.

How much?

📌68x in May 2020

📌12x in September

The old “almost no kids risk” studies outdated. Kids transmit.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
2) “Serologic testing of residual blood specimens collected during May–September 2020, from 1,603 persons aged <18 years suggested that approximately 113,842 (16.3%) of 698,420 young persons in Mississippi might have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by mid-September 2020.”
3) Contrast... only 8,993 confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases among young persons had been reported to the Mississippi State Department of Health by August 31.

8993 reported vs 113,842 likely pediatric cases.
Read 7 tweets
📍~64% MORE SEVERE—The already more contagious #B117 variant from 🇬🇧 is now found to increase risk of #COVID19 hospitalization by 64% versus other strains, says Denmark’s 🇩🇰 CDC. Denmark sequences every cases—their data is the best, & now most worrisome.🧵 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2) Notably, “The adjusted odds ratio was increased in all strata of age and calendar time.” (Regardless of time period & regardless of age group).
3) Conclusion: “Infection with B.1.1.7 was associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation compared with other lineages.”

➡️ “This finding may have serious public health impact in countries with spread of B.1.1.7”
Read 6 tweets
Grobe Modellierung der Inzidenzentwicklung in Deutschland zeigt, dass die Schwelle von 100 vermutlich in 1-3 Wochen überschritten wird.
Anfang April sind Werte über 200 möglich.
Im Modell berücksichtigt: Saisonalität, Impfungen, Mutanten & Lockerungen.
#B117-Anteil bereits > 50%
Annahmen für Best-Guess:
- Saisonalität verringert um Faktor 300 von Winter zu Sommer
- Impfungen verringern R um 70% des Anteils der Geimpften
- Lockerungen seit Mitte Februar erhöhen R um 15%
- Mutanten haben 9% täglichen Übertragungsvorteil (konsistent mit RKI-Daten)
Annahmen für Worst Case:
- Saisonalität von Faktor 200
- Mutanten sind 10% täglich übertragbare
- Lockerungen erhöhen R um 20%

Best Case:
- Saisonalität Faktor 2000
- Mutanten 8% pro Tag übertragbarer
- Lockerungen erhöhen R um 12%
- 50% schnellere Impfung
Read 9 tweets
Logik zum #Öffnungsplan der #Bundesregierung
Wo, wie und wie schnell infiziert man sich mit dem #Coronavirus? Solange die Regierung Entscheidungen - magels Datenlage - ohne Evidenz trifft, solange ist es Willkür, wann welche Bereiche geöffnet und andere geschlossen bleiben #Spahn
Die Mutante #B117 erreicht in diesen Tagen -in den ersten Bundesländern- ihre #Dominanz. #R steigt zeitgleich und die #Regierung erhöht per #Öffnungsplan die #Mobilität: B117, Öffnungsplan u. gesteigerte Mobilität sind drei Faktoren die logisch #R exponentiell beeinflussen können
Zeitgleich werden #Kitas u. #Schulen geöffnet, also die Versammlungsorte, vor deren Öffnung uns Experten und Ärzte aus #Israel u. Kanada warnen. Begründet wird die #Öffnung mit "Meinungen" von Wissenschaftlern, deren #Studien -manipulierte Daten- aus #Schweden zitieren #twlz #KMK
Read 23 tweets
⚠️KIDS ages 5-12 now the *highest positive prevalence age group* for #COVID19 in England🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 in February (not previously in Jan), despite lockdown.

➡️ Higher odds of COVID for workers in: healthcare, transport, & education, school, nursery or childcare. 🧵
spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1…
2) there is definitely something going on with the #B117 variant (where it is fully dominant in 🇬🇧) and kids. This new weird pediatric trend has been now seen in Italy 🇮🇹 Israel 🇮🇱 Denmark 🇩🇰 and many other places. Italy’s leadership sounded the alarms recently about B117 & kids.
3) We should have seen this Italian village where 60% of the cases being in primary school kids as a canary in the coal mine signal. I was very worried at the time...
Read 13 tweets
NEW—CDC warns #COVID19 is "on the cusp" of potential resurgence, with cases & deaths rising. Highly-transmissible #B117 variant can "hijack our successes", as fatigue leads precautions being "flagrantly ignored".

Been warning for over a month. So tired.
2) The #B117 is serious. It is not only 40-60% more contagious, but also more severe. And it also might be causing kids outbreaks worldwide. Italy 🇮🇹 is just one. Israel too.
3) If you think #B117 is bad—wait until the #P1 variant from Brazil 🇧🇷 infects the world. We have to stop this cycle of surges and mutations.
Read 10 tweets
A variante #B117 é já claramente a dominante em Portugal, representando 58.2% dos casos de Fevereiro.

Confirma-se domínio desta variante sobre todas as outras, mesmo sob confinamento restrito. insaflu.insa.pt/covid19/relato… 1/9
Enquanto em Janeiro a #B117 foi detetada em 16% das amostras, em Fevereiro representou 58.2% do total.

Em contraste, as variantes que eram anteriormente dominantes passaram de 54.7% para 23.5% e de 13.2% para 7% das amostras. 2/9
Era expectável de acordo com o observado em outros países, mas não deixa de ser motivo de preocupação.

Significa que, muito provavelmente, mesmo com o R geral ~0.7, o R só da B117 deve estar ~1 (ou >).

Seria interessante conhecer tais dados @DGSaude. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Es gibt einen neuen Mutanten-Bericht vom @rki_de.
Die besorgniserregenden Varianten (VOC) um #B117 verbreiten sich weiterhin 8-11% pro Tag schneller als der Wildtyp (R +36-52%).
Mittlerweile machen sie mehr als 50% aller Fälle aus. Vor einer Woche waren es 48%. 🧵⬇️ Image
Es gibt jetzt eine Kurzübersicht der verschiedenen Datenquellen, die im Bericht ausgewertet werden. Image
Leider werden weiterhin Meldungen aus den Bundesländern aufgeführt, obwohl diese Daten offensichtlich komplett nutzlos sind, da die Länder nicht alle positiven Proben auf Mutanten untersuchen.
So steht bei BaWü im RKI-Bericht Anteil 14%, während BaWü-Bericht von 50% schreibt. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
⚠️BRAZIL COVID EMERGENCY—Entire 🇧🇷 is now “Manaus”. 1700+ deaths in 24 hours, ICUs critical.

📌#P1 🇧🇷 variant is ~2x-2.5x more transmissible, says @obscovid19br

📌17 state capitals ICUs >80% full

📌”Exponential #COVID19 growth unlike any other that we have seen” @bollemdb 🧵 Image
2) Brazil is becoming an enormous Manaus" - @MiguelNicolelis
3) One group puts #P1 at an astoundingly high 2x more transmissibility.

Experiences from Manaus - the Amazonian city hit hard by the P.1 variant - suggest it could be up to twice as transmissible as earlier Covid there, the first detailed study suggests.
bbc.com/news/amp/healt…
Read 17 tweets
1) A EPIDEMIA E AS CRIANÇAS; o contexto da Itália. 🇮🇹

A sequência de tweets foi traduzida do fio 🧶 do epidemiologista @DrEricDing. Vale muito a leitura. Vamos lá? 👇

A circulação da variante #B117 entre crianças em idade escolar infectadas na Itália está ajudando a alimentar um aumento "robusto" na curva da #COVID19 - com taxas de transmissão mais altas "entre o grupo de idade mais jovem" da população.
Nas últimas semanas, a incidência de novos casos entre os jovens na Itália agora superou a incidência entre a população mais velha, uma reversão de como a COVID-19 afligiu os italianos nos primeiros meses da pandemia.
Read 24 tweets
1/ Die Mutter aller Dunkelziffern?
Wie hoch ist unsere #Inzidenz wirklich?
Spoiler: Sie ist nicht 65, eher 120 (EU) oder 210 (DK)

#Corona #covid #MPK #b117

@fneuhann @risklayer @CorneliusRoemer @Karl_Lauterbach @ViolaPriesemann @metroskop @jensspahn @HBraun @markussoeder Image
2/ Im November waren wir vergleichbar: Inzidenz klein, #Todeszahlen gering. In #Europa wurde überall ähnlich erhoben. ImageImage
3/ Jetzt ist das anders: Wir haben Inzidenzen wie Dänemark, aber Todeszahlen wie Frankreich. Es wäre kein Problem, wenn wir mehr Infizierte und weniger Tote haben, aber sich sicher fühlen und dann überrascht werden ist kritisch. ImageImage
Read 18 tweets
If kids under age 6 can wear masks 102 years ago in the last great pandemic, then kids today can too.

PASS IT ON. #COVID19 #MaskUp #schoolmasks
2) We now have major outbreaks in kids worldwide from #B117. See thread 🧵
3) This is the best example of what happens when kids don’t mask in schools....
Read 7 tweets
KIDS EPIDEMIC in Italy 🇮🇹—#B117 variant among Italy's infected schoolchildren and is helping to fuel a “robust” uptick in the curve of #COVID19–with higher transmission rates "among the youngest age group” of the population.
finance.yahoo.com/news/virus-var…
2) In recent weeks, Italy’s incidence of new cases among young people has now eclipsed incidence among the older population, a reversal of how COVID-19 afflicted residents in the first months of the pandemic.
3) Speranza announced stricter directives, contained in the first anti-pandemic decree of new Italian Premier Mario Draghi, aimed at trying to “govern this curve of contagion,” especially among school-age children.
Read 19 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!