.@Tmgneff, @fahimabed, & @NajimRah with a detailed look at the information dissemination and control strategies of the major political players -- Afghan gov't, Taliban and the US military -- in Afghanistan. nytimes.com/2021/01/10/wor…
"[When confronted with incidents of civilian harm by govt forces] Even the pretense of accountability shifted to outright condemnation of those going against the government’s bottom line, probably because of a fear of losing public standing further."
"As the Taliban have scaled up their propaganda distribution, the Afghan government has tightened the reins on official dialogue with the public."
"Since October, the Ghani administration has muzzled provincial spokesmen and district governors, demanding that they stop relaying information to the news media, several Afghan officials from multiple provinces told The Times, especially relating to civilian casualties."
"...repression of information has been a boon for the Taliban...Feb. 29 agreement with the United States on a timetable for withdrawal, experts say, helped legitimize the group on an international level, prompting the Taliban’s public relation apparatus to grow considerably."
"The Taliban often lie about death tolls in their attacks, denying civilian casualties and at times blaming coalition forces for them. [It] has denied taking any role in the recent string of targeted killings across the country, despite being directly implicated by the U.S..."
"In reality, the [Taliban PR] has two lines of effort: one supporting the peace talks and the other discrediting the Afghan government on the battlefield and supporting Taliban fighters."
"To help counter the Taliban’s narrative, the United States started a small psychological operations unit called the Information Warfare Task Force-Afghanistan, according to U.S. military officials."
"By combining cybertools, intercepted communications and social media, the unit acts as an immediate counter to disrupt messaging and information channels of the Taliban and terrorist groups in the country..."
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Some thoughts on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's Iran-al-Qaida nexus speech: 1/n
1. Pompeo today made a case for how al-Qaida poses a major threat to the US and allied interests in the Middle East in a host of ways. But last few years, the Trump admin -- led by him -- has been arguing the opposite to overstate own CT track record and withdraw from Afghanistan
In March 2020, he said on Fox and Friends: "Al Qaeda is a shadow of its former self" foxnews.com/media/sec-pomp…
Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar has assured Afghan Foreign Minister Atmar of a "boost" in military assistance as the US draws down from Afghanistan. What have Afghan leaders asked of India over the last year? Short list I have come across: 1/n theprint.in/diplomacy/indi…
Last year in January, @praveenswami reported that Afghan National Security Adviser Mohib asked India for "...at least a Brigade — perhaps even a Division —of Indian troops to be deployed in a peacekeeping role..." cnbctv18.com/views/afghanis…
In September, Dostum was in India, met the foreign minister and foreign secretary, but made no statement or leaked anything on what he wanted from India: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-…
Reminder by @BRRubin here that US gov't committed to, among other sanctions relief, removing Taliban leaders from the rewards for justice list by Aug 27, 2020.
Language in the agreement here:
Who all from the Taliban is on the rewards for justice list? Basically five Haqqani leaders, I think 1) Siraj Haqqani 2) Aziz Haqqani 3) Yahya Haqqani 4) Khalil Haqqani 5) Abdul Zakir (might be dead?) rewardsforjustice.net/english/most-w…
"...[Afghan gov't says] cease-fire would be the delegation’s top priority. The Taliban, who have used attacks against security forces and civilians as leverage, seek instead to negotiate a form of governance based on strict Islamic law before discussing any cease-fire."
"...the Taliban have been more aggressive in their assaults than the government, whose troops tend to stay on bases and at checkpoints, responding to persistent attacks."
In this 2019 podcast with former ambassadors Deborah McCarthy and Richard Olson, Secretary Defense nominee @LloydAustin discusses US policy towards Pakistan during his stint as CENTCOM chief from 2013 to 2016. Some highlights: 1/n generalambassadorpodcast.org/035
Austin says Pakistan "will remain strategically important" to the US.
Austin talks about his relationship with Pakistan's army chiefs in his time: Kayani and Raheel Sharif.
Senior al-Qaida leader Husam Abd-Al Rauf — referred here as Mohsin al Masri — seems to have been killed by Afghan intelligence in Ghazni province. He had been in the region for a while including Waziristan circa 2005-2014 and there was no news of his targeting or leaving Af-Pak.
I speculated in (footnote of) @MiddleEastInst report that Rauf might still be in Afghanistan: mei.edu/publications/a…. He was on FBI wanted list: fbi.gov/wanted/wanted_…. He was a feature in al-Qaida media; as early as 05, wrote in Vanguards of Khorasan & released video in 2019.
Too bad he wasn’t captured alive — that could have provided more visibility into al-Qaida’s presence in and strategy for the region, and status of Zawahiri. Maybe they have picked up other documents etc from site of the raid?