Thread by @CBCQueensPark

SCOOP: What I've found out about the #COVID19 modelling that Premier Doug Ford says will make you "fall off your chair." #COVID19Ontario
cbc.ca/news/canada/to…

All of this information comes from multiple sources who have seen the modelling, which was presented to cabinet on Friday.
However, the Ford government is not planning to release it publicly until tomorrow, nor announce any new restrictions until tomorrow. #COVID19Ontario

Sources say the modelling suggests Ontario is on track to report an average of 6,000 new cases of #COVID19 daily before the end of this month. That would be 10X as high as the peak of the first wave. #COVID19Ontario

The modelling forecasts that Ontario's intensive care units will be filled beyond capacity by early February. Hospital ICUs can handle ≈2000 patients; baseline occupancy of non-COVID patients ≈1200. Modelling says 800-1000 #COVID19 patients expected in early Feb #COVID19Ontario

Cabinet was also given mobility data showing a spike in movement by Ontarians in the days just before Christmas. @jyangstar has the scoop with details of what it shows. #COVID19Ontario
thestar.com/news/gta/2021/…

Cabinet also saw survey data suggesting a large proportion of Ontarians are not following basic public health guidelines to slow the spread of #COVID19.
I reported in October that the province intended to do these kinds of surveys. #COVID19Ontario
cbc.ca/news/canada/to…

Cabinet was also shown research about how a new, more contagious variant of #COVID19 (first identified in the UK) risks accelerating the spread of infections. Queen's Univ mathematician Troy Day did the research, as reported by @CBCOttawa's @onthebeat1 cbc.ca/news/canada/ot…

Two expert sources tell me they question why Ford is sounding so shocked by the new modelling, as it is well in line with previous warnings from Ontario's #COVID19 science advisory table about where the province was headed. #COVID19Ontario
covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/upl…