Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #covid19ontario

Most recents (24)

Early evidence of trend change but certainly not that surprising. Wastewater signal +.09, doubling time of 13.7 days, per Science Table.
The regional charts show that this uptick is common across most regions. Reminder that the ww signal trend can be volatile, as we saw during the last trend change during the BA.2 peak period.
Read 4 tweets
🧵June 8, 2022 update on selected Ontario #covid19 trends.
1. Hospitalizations are down -200 (-27.7%) from last week and now stand at 522 👏. ICU is down -10.2% to 114. 40.6% of hospitalizations are "for" covid (vs "with").
#covid19ontario #onhealth #onpoli Image
2. The 7 day average of reported new deaths dropped significantly to 4.9 per day from 12.3 last week 🙏. This is in line with the continued drop in wastewater signal over recent weeks and the ~ 3 week lag in deaths.
#onhealth #onpoli #covid19ontario Image
3. Those select groups like HCWs who are eligible for PCR tests are continuing to show declining test positivity. The weekly pooled estimate is now 7.2%.
#onhealth #covid19ontario Image
Read 15 tweets
🧵Let's look at a few Ontario #covid19 trends.
#covid19ontario #onhealth
1. Hospitalizations are down -18.3% over last week (1248) as hospitals recover from wave 6. 7 day average ICU admissions are up slightly. Only 37.9% of hospitalizations are "for" covid (vs "with"). Image
2. The hospital picture is now strongly tilted to hospital wards vs ICU. This is tied primarily to high incidental infection rates among those admitted/hospitalized, vaccination levels (rates are high for 60+) and [presumably] improved treatment.
#onhealth #covid19 Image
3. New deaths appear to have moderated for this wave. The peak reached a 7 day daily average of 19.9, two-thirds the peak of the Wave 3 Alpha wave last Spring. Image
Read 11 tweets
🧵Ontario is seeing drops across #covid19 hospitalization and death indicators today.
1. Hospitalizations have stabilized and are down -8 from a week ago. They now stand at 1,676.
#onhealth #covid19ontario #covid19
2. ICU is down to 188, -24 from a week ago.
3. New adult ICU admissions are falling, 9 were reported today.
Read 5 tweets
APR 29: #COVID19 in #Ontario
2760 cases, 20* deaths, 3462 resolved
19235 tests/day, 7135 pending, 13.2% pos
1679 hospitalized🏥
209 in ICU (94 on ventilator)

+33,077 vaccinations💉
See thread for more graphs📈⤵️
#Covid_19 #covid #Omicron
#COVID19 ICU in #Ontario 🚨🏥
ICU total: 209
ICU non-ventilated: 115
ICU+ventilator: 94

#COVIDー19 #COVID19Ontario #onpoli
#Covid19Ontario daily cases vs. total current hospitalizations
Read 14 tweets
🧵I am seeing a significant slowing in the Ontario weekly growth rate of hospitalizations. This is consistent with the prior slowing of the wastewater signal and PCR-eligible test positivity and is a welcome development.
#onhealth #covid19ontario #covid19
This is the PCR test positivity trend I was referring to, it is only for those at higher risk so may not reflect the provincial trend.
The wastewater signal has provisional estimates (dashed) where there is incomplete data and is very volatile. I focus on the solid line. But it's also possible the trend could continue to grow as the dashed line indicates, perhaps aided by last long weekend's gatherings.
Read 7 tweets
APR 27: #COVID19 in #Ontario
3005 cases, 22* deaths, 4055 resolved
23230 tests/day, 7914 pending, 15.2% pos
1734 hospitalized🏥
211 in ICU (92 on ventilator)

+34,168 vaccinations💉
See thread for more graphs📈⤵️
#Covid_19 #covid #Omicron Image
#COVID19 ICU in #Ontario 🚨🏥
ICU total: 211
ICU non-ventilated: 119
ICU+ventilator: 92

#COVIDー19 #COVID19Ontario #onpoli Image
#Covid19Ontario daily cases vs. total current hospitalizations Image
Read 14 tweets
Ontario #covid19 hospitalizations at 1,730 (+7.1% vs last week*). We're seeing a slowing growth rate. Clearer picture tomorrow. ICU up +6.3% vs LW.
*somewhat an estimate since I had to estimate last Tuesday's underreported hospitalizations.
#onhealth #covid19ontario Image
New Adult ICU admissions.
#onhealth Image
A closer examination of ICU trends. #onhealth Image
Read 4 tweets
APR 25: #COVID19 in #Ontario
2028 cases, 2* deaths, 2641 resolved
13247 tests/day, 4688 pending, 15.3% pos
1455 hospitalized🏥
219 in ICU (97 on ventilator)

+8,625 vaccinations💉
See thread for more graphs📈⤵️
#Covid_19 #covid #Omicron
#COVID19 ICU in #Ontario 🚨🏥
ICU total: 219
ICU non-ventilated: 122
ICU+ventilator: 97

#COVIDー19 #COVID19Ontario #onpoli
#Covid19Ontario daily cases vs. total current hospitalizations
Read 14 tweets
How can a govt spew out this big lie with a straight face "Ontario continues to EFFECTIVELY manage the sixth wave". This fig leaf of partial mask mandates is just that, another in a long stream of nothingburgers that leave Ontarians getting infected in massive numbers each day.
We're talking benign masks here, not some draconian measure that can only be used in the most serious situations. The infection levels are serious almost everywhere. The way they ration these mandates out you would think people are being locked down with chains. It's a mask lol.
"Sure, maybe there's 10,000 fewer infections today with mask mandates but what about acne? /s
Read 4 tweets
🧵New US published study of nearly 10,000 #covid19 breakthrough infections after vaccination in 2021 shows no reduction in #longcovid feature risk. Also, in general, 60+ are less likely to see vaccine benefits on many outcomes of breakthrough infections.… Image
A matched retrospective cohort has used to arrive at the hazard ratios shown here. Breakthrough infection outcome HR's to the left of the dashed line show risk reductions associated with prior vaccination. Reductions for ICU and death are significant, long term sequelae are not. Image
Long term feature (any) risk from breakthrough infections is not significantly different than unvaccinated infections. Also, <60 have significantly lower death risk from breakthrough infections than unvaxxed but 60+ do not. Image
Read 8 tweets
APR 18: #COVID19 in #Ontario
2219 cases, 2* deaths, 2382 resolved
10060 tests/day, 3784 pending, 18.7% pos
1301 hospitalized🏥
202 in ICU (91 on ventilator)

+5,699 vaccinations💉
See thread for more graphs📈⤵️
#Covid_19 #covid #Omicron
#COVID19 ICU in #Ontario 🚨🏥
ICU total: 202
ICU non-ventilated: 111
ICU+ventilator: 91

#COVIDー19 #COVID19Ontario #onpoli
Read 15 tweets
1/🧵#Ontario wave 6 analysis
One caution I have raised about new waves is that early infections start in younger age cohorts then progress to older. Here is the age-test positivity for those eligible for restricted PCR testing. As you can see,
#covid19 #covid19ontario #onhealth
2/ wave 6 in Ontario is following that pattern, eventually those more risk averse, better protected by vaccines and with fewer social/work/school contacts on average suffer enough cumulative exposure risk that they too become infected.
3/ The problem in Ontario is that we cannot monitor that properly since PCR tests were severely restricted to select groups like health care workers, long term care, and other special groups on 12/31/21. Nonetheless, the same age pattern has emerged.…
Read 8 tweets
The fact that this infection wave may be peaking is good news for the future but it also means that on this Easter weekend many will be gathering indoors at a time when people are more like to be infectious than almost any weekend in the pandemic.
Extra gathering precautions:
- outdoors if possible
- guests attend only if zero symptoms
- do NOT depend solely on RATs
- 3 or more total of vax doses + prior infection
- **quality masks**
- distanced seating for meals
- open windows for air flow, fan
- HEPA filter if possible
As for RATs, a test should be conducted by all just before gathering and should include nose and throat per public health guidance. A single negative test may not detect covid, especially from very recent exposures. Asymptomatic can still infect as well.
Read 5 tweets
In the absence of accurate case reporting for Ontario and to add to the wastewater signal, I have attempted to highlight a set of "wave signals" in this chart. Signals may be multipliers of original indicators, so trends can be overlaid and compared.
#covid19ontario #onhealth
For example, the "hospitalized with covid" makes use of the fact that there is PCR testing for hospitals and the "with" classification may be more linked to community prevalence.
The deaths signal is a lagging indicator and it is included to help show its relationship to the earlier indicators. Again, the indicator is a multiple of the actual death data.
Read 4 tweets
BREAKING: Significant drop in the Ontario wastewater signal estimate for April 10th, now down to 1.04, a drop of -.14 over last week. Halving time is estimated at 28.1 days. (data and chart from Ontario Science Table).
#covid19ontario #covid19 #onhealth Image
Declines are seen in five of six regions. Image
This follows on my earlier reports today on slight drops in hospitalizations and limited testing PCR positivity
Read 5 tweets
APR 13: #COVID19 in #Ontario
3833 cases, 13 deaths, 3339 resolved
23618 tests/day, 8712 pending, 17.5% pos
1332 hospitalized🏥
182 in ICU (85 on ventilator)

+38,191 vaccinations💉
See thread for more graphs📈⤵️
#Covid_19 #covid #Omicron Image
#COVID19 ICU in #Ontario 🚨🏥
ICU total: 182
ICU non-ventilated: 97
ICU+ventilator: 85

#COVIDー19 #COVID19Ontario #onpoli Image
Read 15 tweets
Dr. Moore is refusing to change course and will not reinstate mask mandates.
He made no mention of the extreme infection levels (possibly 100,000 per day) or long covid risks. This is unacceptable coming from a CMOH who delayed addressing the public for a month.
Actually touting the 55% first dose level for kids 5-11 when one dose provides practically NO protection against BA.2 infection. More twisted information spinning.
Read 14 tweets
Three dose coverage across Ontario by age.
Three doses are required to help reduce the risk of symptomatic infection.
#covid19ontario #onhealth #onpoli
Two dose coverage. Two doses can generally provide good protection against hospitalization or worse severe outcomes. But two doses offer minimal protection against Omicron infection as they wane past 24 weeks.
#onhealth #covid19ontario
This UK chart gives an idea of how two doses wane against Omicron infection (Dose 2, left side 25+ weeks).
Read 4 tweets
I understand Dr. Juni of the Science Table said one in twenty Ontarians may have an active infection. That's certainly in the plausible range of what I see right now. Now add to that the fact that people are going maskless, isolation rules are minimal, and venues are at capacity.
I defy any Ontario Minister to say that this is what they expected. And if they did, I defy them to explain why they remain in office. This is a manmade tire fire added to a more transmissible BA.2 emergence. #onpoli #covid19ontario
Just like the first Omicron wave, the uncontrolled infections of this wave may well arrive before the announced next protective dose can be given. Last wave, the province could not provide third doses quickly enough, this time it will be the fourth.
Read 4 tweets
🧵Important FDA presentation on the future outlook for SARS-COV-2 by @trvrb et al.
He estimates that ~50% of the US popn was infected in 10 weeks with Omicron. Following slides help describe how the virus might evolve. #covid19
There are 2 main scenarios.…
There is a lot of uncertainty on how many omicron-like significant disruptions may occur in the future.
Based on that one occurrence already, Bayesian probability theory can only suggest about a 30% chance of one or more new omicron-like events this year. High uncertainty.
Read 10 tweets
APR 6: #COVID19 in #Ontario
3444 cases, 32* deaths, 2872 resolved
21553 tests/day, 7381 pending, 18.0% pos
1074 hospitalized🏥
168 in ICU (83 on ventilator)

+8,664 vaccinations💉
7,204,915 people with 3x💉 (48.9%)
See thread for more graphs📈⤵️
#Covid_19 #covid #Omicron
#COVID19 ICU in #Ontario 🚨🏥
ICU total: 168
ICU non-ventilated: 85
ICU+ventilator: 83

#COVIDー19 #COVID19Ontario #onpoli
#Covid19Ontario daily cases vs. total current hospitalizations
Read 14 tweets
Ontario hospitalization trends. All indicators are up. Hospitalizations are up sharply, +38.1% vs last week. Doubling time has sped up to 15 days. Take precautions, wear quality masks.
#onhealth #covid19ontario #covid19 Image
Weekly test positivity for those eligible for a PCR test is steepening, now at 16.7% (one in 6 people tested).
#onhealth #covid19ontario Image
Ontario's smoothed wastewater signal is a proxy for infection levels and continues to rise sharply. The doubling time is 10.4 days.
#covid19ontario #onhealth Image
Read 5 tweets
Read this 🧵. This has been my concern, immunocompromised people falling through the cracks of an urgent treatment process many are not aware of. The communication of this has been poor. Ontario needs to do much better. This person was lucky.
cc @ASPphysician @MPaiMD
@ASPphysician @MPaiMD Check here to see if you are eligible for antiviral treatment (be sure to check your medication list - see next post). Don't rely only on a rapid test. If you are eligible and have symptoms, don't delay in contacting the listed numbers.…
The immunocompromised eligible medication list is buried deep within a pdf link in the pdf labelled "vaccine third dose recommendations" (this is horrible communications @celliottability, please fix this).
#onhealth #covid19ontario
pdf link:…
Read 7 tweets

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