last year, @nssylla and I warned that France & G20 are planting budgetary time bombs in Africa through a conveyor belt that transfers their fiscal resources to institutional investors in the Global North.
news from Kenya today about one critical element of that conveyor belt - Public Private Partnerships through which state guarantees private profits.
The IMF estimated those derisking commitments to be around 8% of GDP in 2019 (and stressed this is a significant underestimate)
today, under IMF pressure (and as it finally joined the DSSI club), Kenyan Treasury accepted to include those PPP derisking commitment in public debt numbers
this could be welcome news: contingent liabilities should be counted into public debt numbers to prevent the state from throwing itself into mega-infrastructure projects in the name of constructing development assets for institutional investors.
but is it really? the political arithmetic of public debt, as @dmugge would put, cannot be separated from the overall push for infrastructure as a development asset class.
So what we may get instead is even less quality public investment, and more PPP derisking.
👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀
at the long-end of this expensive PPP highway stands the French asset manager Meridiam, Macron's key partner in development as derisking infrastructure asset classes project h/t @crystalsimeoni
show me something more confusing than accounting capital flows in the balance of payments - this, with due respect, is not helping. cc @jonsindreu@i_aldasoro
and for those who think people like me ignore the 'market':
I'd say politicians have not caught up with the structural realities of financial markets where government debt has a 'macrofinancial' role rather different from standard 'fiscal' role
hard to believe, but in the late 1940s, CDU, the party that gave Europe 'Schwarze null' and Schauble objected to central bank independence
instead it wanted 'an absolute coordination of policy between the central bank and the future state' (Mee 2019)
ahem, JC Trichet
The 1950 Bundesbank Law debate equated central bank independence with 'state within a state', capable of sacrificing employment for sound money. Familiar eh?
The #WallStreetConsensus is a new paradigm that frames development as a question of 'producing bankable projects' that can attract institutional investors.
Development asset classes = privatisation of social and physical infrastructure via PPPs.
But 'Development as Derisking' is not just about privatization. It rather seeks to transform the state, to reduce statecraft to derisking investments for global financiers. A bankable project is one where the state commits to put a safety net under investors.
We are badly governed: shit macroeconomic policies (we've maxed out the credit card), shit health policies (COVID19 is taking a Xmas break), shit Brexit (Dover truck queues) and shit climate policies (COP26 greenwashing coming your way next year)
And for those who can't do sarcasm at this joyful juncture, no there is no credit card except in the warped minds of the clowns in power