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11 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I do find it quite remarkable that people who have been making testable predictions that have completely failed to come through every day for MONTHS are still being given so much air
For example, a testable prediction made by Sunetra Gupta, Anders Tegnell, and others was that areas most impacted by COVID-19 in March/April would be substantially protected from any resurgence. This has proven largely wrong
This was, in part, based on the prediction by Gupta that the UK (and others) had already reached "herd immunity", or were close to it

Also wrong
There are many further examples of people who have said things that are just obviously incorrect. I.e.

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More from @GidMK

Health Nerd Profile picture
13 Jan
A new paper has been published by John Ioannidis and Jay "Great Barrington Declaration" Bhattacharya on "lockdowns" as a COVID-19 preventative measure

Let's do some twitter peer-review! 1/n
2/n The paper is here, and it's an interesting read:

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.11…
3/n The paper takes 10 countries' worth of data, and compares their COVID-19 case numbers against the restrictions they had in place in early 2020, comparing those with less-restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (lrNPIs) with more-restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs) Image
Read 25 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
11 Jan
One thing that's quite funny to note about the awful @JAMANetworkOpen study that has recently been incompletely corrected is that it implies that school holidays are killing people
See, the authors assume that, in the US, every additional year of schooling reduces your risk of death by ~46% across the entire lifespan, and that any/all days missed in terms of school are precisely equivalent to missing schooling
This is not some vague sidepoint, but a central assumption underlying the entire model. Every day missed from school is precisely equivalent to missing lifetime schooling by a fixed amount per child
Read 8 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
11 Jan
Some movement to announce here: JAMA Open have now corrected this paper 2 months after it was published

Unfortunately, it has gone from an error-filled useless analysis to a slightly less error-filled useless analysis

Some more peer-review on twitter 1/n
2/n The updated paper is here jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…

And you can read @ikashnitsky and my original commentary on the paper here

osf.io/9yqxw/
2.5/n Important to note that this is a very influential paper. It has been in >100 news stories, and has been cited by the EU and WHO (!)

Worrying that until recently it was openly wrong
Read 33 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
10 Jan
GETTING SICK IS NOT A MORAL FAILING
Yes, this applies to COVID-19 as well. Stop blaming people for being sick
"But they didn't wear a mask" lots of people who DID wear a mask got COVID-19, it's not perfect protection, you can't apply morality to something that is largely out of your control
Read 4 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
10 Jan
"Lockdowns don't work, you can't control COVID-19 with govt restrictions!"

Pretty much every state in Australia has now controlled an exponential outbreak using a variety of restrictions, if we can do it you can too
Hopefully we can get enough people vaccinated by mid-2021 to help alleviate the issue anyway, but it remains remarkably ignorant to say that govt action can't control COVID-19 outbreaks when it very clearly can
Whether you WANT to control the disease with such measures is a very different question, but the obvious fact that you CAN is really not up for debate
Read 4 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
3 Jan
Statements made by @MichaelYeadon3 by date, against the number of mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients in the UK

At a certain point, I do wonder why people still listen
And yes, for anyone interested in facts, most positive SARS-CoV-2 tests are true positives (even in the UK), this is not some conspiracy but actually quite simple mathematics

gidmk.medium.com/most-positive-…
"This is just like previous years' influenza"

In 2017/18 and 18/19 the peak admissions across the UK to ICU/HDU units for flu did not top 300 per week, making the current situation at least 5x worse than your average season

And it's getting worse
Read 4 tweets

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