For example, states like Florida and New York are quickly vaccinating more people than new infections, while states like California and Georgia are still lagging behind.
See my short thread from yesterday for more vaccination data + projections.
You can see both the daily and total vaccination rate on our site. Other tracker sites (e.g. CDC, Bloomberg, NYT) only show the total vaccination rate.
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Are high levels of existing COVID-19 population immunity in US counties associated with a lower infection rate in this current wave?
This thread contains my latest findings to this question.
Initial conclusion: No, there is practically no correlation.
The plot above shows the the percentage of the population infected before Sep 1 & after Sep 1 in each county (based on covid19-projections.com estimates).
The question is: can knowing the % infected before Sep 1 in a county predict the relative severity of this current wave?
When looking at all 3,000+ counties, the answer is no. There is practically no correlation (R^2 = 0.002) between the % infected before Sep 1 and after Sep 1.
So given a county, the COVID-19 prevalence before Sep 1 has no predictive value in determining the severity since Sep 1.
A lot of people have asked why the CDC estimates close to 100M total US COVID-19 infections (28%) by Dec 1, while covid19-projections.com only estimates 58M (17%).
I believe there are major flaws in the CDC estimates, which I will explain in this thread.
To begin, the covid19-projections.com model is tuned on serology surveys, while the CDC model is not.
While CDC estimates 7x more COVID-19 infections than reported, covid19-projections.com estimates this ratio to currently be ~3x, down from 10x in April and 4x in the summer.
Using the CDC claim that "1 in 7 total infections were reported", this would imply that 70% of North & South Dakota were infected, which doesn't pass a common sense test.
While a 7x multiplier is believable in the spring, the paper still claims this is the case in September.
Many people are unaware that the COVID-19 vaccine has significantly more side effects than the flu vaccine. I hope to see more honest discussions regarding this.
Props to @Cat_Ho for her realistic, data-centric reporting of this issue. It's much needed.