New feature! We are now including vaccination status (according to @CDCgov) on all plots for every US state (and nationally).

Find out how quickly your state is vaccinating people here:…
For example, states like Florida and New York are quickly vaccinating more people than new infections, while states like California and Georgia are still lagging behind.
See my short thread from yesterday for more vaccination data + projections.

Maps of vaccination progress now available:…

You can see both the daily and total vaccination rate on our site. Other tracker sites (e.g. CDC, Bloomberg, NYT) only show the total vaccination rate.

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More from @youyanggu

7 Jan
Are high levels of existing COVID-19 population immunity in US counties associated with a lower infection rate in this current wave?

This thread contains my latest findings to this question.

Initial conclusion: No, there is practically no correlation.
The plot above shows the the percentage of the population infected before Sep 1 & after Sep 1 in each county (based on estimates).

The question is: can knowing the % infected before Sep 1 in a county predict the relative severity of this current wave?
When looking at all 3,000+ counties, the answer is no. There is practically no correlation (R^2 = 0.002) between the % infected before Sep 1 and after Sep 1.

So given a county, the COVID-19 prevalence before Sep 1 has no predictive value in determining the severity since Sep 1.
Read 26 tweets
5 Jan
Out of 137 US counties with >500,000 residents, the top five currently worst-hit counties are all in California.

We estimate 1 in 16 residents in those counties are currently infected with COVID-19.

See more in our new US County Summary page:…
So how does LA now compare to NYC at its peak?

We estimate NYC had 1 in 8 residents infected at its peak in March 2020. So LA is currently at half of NYC's peak.

Deaths are likely lower than half due to a lower IFR than in the spring.
Read 5 tweets
29 Dec 20
A lot of people have asked why the CDC estimates close to 100M total US COVID-19 infections (28%) by Dec 1, while only estimates 58M (17%).

I believe there are major flaws in the CDC estimates, which I will explain in this thread.…
To begin, the model is tuned on serology surveys, while the CDC model is not.

While CDC estimates 7x more COVID-19 infections than reported, estimates this ratio to currently be ~3x, down from 10x in April and 4x in the summer.
Using the CDC claim that "1 in 7 total infections were reported", this would imply that 70% of North & South Dakota were infected, which doesn't pass a common sense test.

While a 7x multiplier is believable in the spring, the paper still claims this is the case in September.
Read 18 tweets
15 Dec 20
If we vaccinate 10 million people today, statistically 300 of them will die the very next day. Regardless if they actually got vaccinated or not.

Over the next months, it's important to watch for misinformation that blames adverse events on the vaccine.

Below is an example of the misinformation that can spread.

The annual incidence of Bell's palsy is ~25 per 100k. There were 4 cases out of 40k participants.

The FDA concluded it's "consistent with the expected background rate in the general population."

In statistics, this is a simple application of something called Bayes Rule.

In essence, we must consider the likelihood of an event happening independently.

For ex: a 90-year-old has a 1 in 6 chance of dying within a year. So this happening after a vaccine would not be unusual.
Read 4 tweets
14 Dec 20
Many people are unaware that the COVID-19 vaccine has significantly more side effects than the flu vaccine. I hope to see more honest discussions regarding this.

Props to @Cat_Ho for her realistic, data-centric reporting of this issue. It's much needed.…
Some notable numbers from the vaccine trial participants after the 2nd dose (age 16-55):

- 16% developed a fever vs 0% for the placebo
- 59%/52% had fatigue/headache vs 23/24% for placebo
- 45% took pain medication vs 13% for placebo

Those age 55+ have a slightly lower rate.
In comparison, roughly 1% of flu shot participants report a fever (16x lower), and ~20% report fatigue/headache (2x lower).

On top of that, COVID-19 vaccine participants have to go through this twice. Though the side effects are milder after dose #1.

Read 12 tweets
11 Dec 20
By many accounts, the US will have 100 million vaccine doses by February.

I estimated yesterday that we need ~100 million people to gain immunity via vaccination to reach herd immunity.

So *theoretically*, we can reach herd immunity by March if we vaccinate the right people.
This involves allocating the initial (limited) supply of vaccines based on two main criteria:

1) Each individual receives only one dose instead of two.
2) We prioritize individuals who have not had a prior infection.

This would be temporary, until supply catches up.
There is some evidence, though inconclusive, that even one dose of the vaccine can have reasonable efficacy (potentially >80%).

Read 15 tweets

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