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Aaron Derfel

13 Jan, 11 tweets, 7 min read

1) As #COVID19 hospitalizations surged by 61 to nearly 1,500 in the province Tuesday, more young Quebecers are being admitted for the #pandemic illness than ever, some of whom are children, according to the latest figures by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec.

2) The INSPQ reported on Tuesday that there were six “current hospitalizations” for #COVID19 among children up to the age of nine, and 11 between the ages of 10 and 19. I’ve never seen such stats before in Quebec’s pandemic. Please look at the pie chart below.

3) True, the majority of the 1,497 Quebecers hospitalized for #COVID19 are above the age of 60, with the 80-to-89 demographic comprising most admissions. However, as you can observe from INSPQ Excel chart below, a total of 68 Quebecers under 39 are currently in hospital.

4) What’s also concerning is the fact that two #COVID19 patients between the ages of 10 and 19 are fighting for their lives in intensive-care units in Quebec, according to the INSPQ Excel chart below. Please note that 21 Quebecers in their 40s are in ICUs as well.

@mrlalonde

5) The surging hospitalizations come as Quebec is one ICU stay away from tying the record it set on May 6 of 221. My colleague, @mrlalonde, is reporting in the @mtlgazette tonight about “surreal…Twilight Zone” ICU decisions that may need to be taken. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

6) On Tuesday evening, two Montreal hospital emergency rooms, Maisonneuve-Rosemont and Santa Cabrini, appealed to the public to stay away from their ERs following #COVID19 outbreaks. But other Montreal ERs are badly overcrowded. See the chart below.

7) Meanwhile, Montreal posted a dramatic drop in #COVID19 cases Tuesday, 597, down from 750 the day before and from a record 1,531 on Jan. 8. I would caution against reading too much into the latest drop, given authorities have been testing a lot less of late.

8) Something strange appears to be occurring with #COVID19 outbreaks across the province during the curfew. The Health Ministry reported an increase of six to 27 clusters in the category of “events” and a rise of two outbreaks to four in the category of “unknown.”

9) A critical #COVID19 outbreak has struck the Chanoine Scott seniors’ residence in the Capitale-Nationale, with 41 new cases in the past 24 hours. A critical outbreak has also erupted at the CHSLD Jeanne-Le-Ber in Montreal’s east end, with 14 active infections.

10) On Jan. 7, the Quebec Education Ministry recorded a total of 487 active #COVID19 cases among students and staff. On Tuesday, a day after elementary school students returned to class, that number jumped to 1,176, with five classes already shuttered. See the chart below.

11) In neighboring Ontario, Premier Doug Ford announced schools in Toronto and other #COVID19 hot spots will stay closed until Feb. 10. One last chart: Montreal declared six more #COVID19 fatalities Tuesday to a death toll that may cross the 4,000-mark Wednesday. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

12 Jan

1) In the starkest assessment yet, a deputy Quebec health minister warned Monday of the pandemic’s long-lasting impact not just on #COVID19 patients but on those suffering from cancer. In this thread, I will try to explain the deadly indirect damage the #coronavirus is causing.

2) Because of the worsening #pandemic, the number of elective surgeries in the province has jumped to at least 140,000. Even that number, though, doesn’t tell the full story. Kidney transplants from living donors have been suspended, and some people cannot get a colonoscopy.

3) The ramp down in clinical activities during the #pandemic’s first wave last spring resulted in at least 5,000 fewer cancer diagnoses than the normal volume. That means thousands of Quebecers are walking around with cancers that would otherwise have been detected earlier.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

10 Jan

1) Since Dec. 16, the day before Quebec schools closed due to the #COVID19 resurgence, the number of active cases among students and staff stood at 5,156. Since then, that number has plummeted to 487. In this thread, I'll focus on the risks involved with Monday's return to class.

2) Authorities have acknowledged that closing schools has led to a drop in #COVID19 cases among elementary and high school students. Yet unlike southern Ontario, which will keep its schools closed until Jan. 28, elementary school students here will have to return to class Monday.

3) The fact that Grades 5 and 6 students will now have to wear masks in class all day long suggests Quebec authorities acknowledge that overcrowded and poorly ventilated schools can cause transmission of the #coronavirus. Yet there are no plans for portable air purifiers.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

9 Jan

1) Montreal on Saturday shattered a #pandemic record, posting 1,531 (!) #COVID19 cases. This marks the third time this week the metropolis has reported daily totals above 1,100. In this thread, I will try to shed light on the sharply deteriorating situation in the city.

2) The city’s seven-day rolling average has soared to 50.64 #COVID19 cases per 100,000 residents. That’s double the threshold set by Harvard University’s health experts to require stay-at-home orders. Instead, the city remains open, except for an 8 p.m. curfew, starting tonight.

3) Montreal’s latest resurgence is by far greater than other regions in the province. Montreal also posted 461 more #COVID19 cases than the more populous city of Toronto. The spike in Montreal is reflected in the fact the positivity rate in one borough, Saint-Léonard, is 20.9%.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

9 Jan

1) A Quebec public health advisor suggested Friday installing portable air purifiers in schools might produce the opposite effect, inadvertently causing the #coronavirus to spread in the air among students. In this thread, I will fact-check this assertion by Dr. Richard Massé.

2) This is what Dr. Massé had to say on the subject: “The committee also found that if they’re not installed properly they can create air movement that promotes the transmission of aerosols.” Upon what scientific basis did the committee reach this decision?

3) The answer to that question can be found in the scientific references listed in the back of the study by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec. The INSPQ cited a South Korean study which warns the “installation of air purifiers may cause new problems.”

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

8 Jan

1) In the past two days, #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace have jumped by 70 across Quebec, raising questions about the government’s decision to spare the manufacturing industry from its latest lockdown announcement. In this thread, I will re-examine the government's decision.

2) On Nov. 21, the government reported a total of 64 outbreaks in manufacturing, 53 in stores and 26 in construction. In the last update on workplace outbreaks on Dec. 23, the government disclosed that #COVID19 clusters in manufacturing nearly tripled to 187.

3) Outbreaks in stores nearly tripled, too, with a total of 151, according to the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ). And #COVID19 clusters in construction nearly doubled to 60. Yet the Premier has exempted manufacturing and construction from the new lockdown.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

7 Jan

1) Since last week, the #COVID19 positivity rate in the Montreal borough of Saint-Léonard has jumped to 20.9% (!) from 18.1%, underscoring how the #coronavirus is running rampant in the city. Will the four-week curfew announced Wednesday succeed in breaking this second wave?

2) Before answering that question, it’s worth focusing on the rising #COVID19 hospitalizations in Montreal and across the province. At the McGill University Health Centre (see the chart below), the number of such hospitalizations has been surging in an almost vertical line.

3) Quebec-wide, intensive-care stays due to #COVID19 are fast approaching the peak of the first wave, with a total of 202 disclosed on Wednesday. (The record stands at 222 on May 6). This is in addition to all the other non-COVID patients who are in ICUs. See the chart below.

Read 10 tweets

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