Seeing what looks like big secondary explosions in Albu Kamal area tonight. Israelis seem to have mounted their most concerted strike to date, probably with scores of weapons and more than two dozen aimpoints. Missile and rocket / propellant storage caches, some empty, some not.
The excavation that is constantly undertaken by IRGC and Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria seems to have a simple purpose: create more storage options, to complicate the scale of targeting challenge and facilitate a shell game of lots of empty shelters and a few full.
My sense is that it is getting gradually harder and harder for IRGC and militias to store higher-value/scarce assets (like precision rockets and longer-ranged drones) in Anbar and Syria. They keep getting cleaned out. It is safer to hold them in depth, in Iran or in Maysan.
Movement of missile and rockets is another constant shell game: oil and water tankers, other trucks, truck containers. My sense is that warheads and body are always separated, and often moved and stored separately. Fuel locations also separate.
The Iraq-Syria border is closely watched and movement is partially channelized by various outposts, barriers, terrain, and by islands of security forces not controlled by Iran. In 1991 you could hide a LOT out there, but things have moved on. We are keeping it competitive.
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