My new @WashInstitute piece reaches back into my notes from an April 2019 closed-door workshop we held on how Qassem Soleimani's death would affect the IRGC Qods Force & its regional efforts. Thread to follow washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
@WashInstitute Soleimani has undoubted strengths - he was empowered, bold, charismatic and consistent. The over-investment of the IRGC effort in a man made him an attractive target and a hard-to-replace loss for IRGCQF. 
@WashInstitute Soleimani played a variety of critical roles for IRGCQF -- too many, in fact. He was central to too many efforts, seemingly not delegating, and this overstretch and need to be present at key meetings was what got him killed in the end.
@WashInstitute The Washington Institute's @Martin_Kramer noted in his study on sudden succession that one needs to assess where a leader is in their arc (lots to do, achievements behind them) to assess the damage their removal caused. Soleimani still had a ways to go washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Docume…
@WashInstitute @Martin_Kramer However, it's interesting to look at Soleimani's last year or two, where the winning streak comes to an end, even before his death. He was not infallible. Everything got harder. At the zenith of IRGC power in Iraq, they messed up royally by killing the protestors.
@WashInstitute @Martin_Kramer Now the face of IRGC expansion is dead, killed as he hurried around the region trying to correct a spiraling sequence of errors. Encouragingly, a combination of IRGC overreach & the US attrition/pressure effort was able to unbalance & overload our most capable adversary.
@WashInstitute @Martin_Kramer In combination with recent mass protests in Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran itself, the death of Soleimani could be a momentum-breaker for the IRGC’s expansionist policies. My suspicion is that they'll retrench, plan and turn towards the nuclear pressure toolkit.
@WashInstitute @Martin_Kramer For the last week, we have felt like our old selves again. Let's not mess it up. Each foot must be placed firmly and cautiously. Let's keep up the profitable focus on corrupt, human rights-violating elites, and avoid any actions that can hurt their innocent victims.
