Also, if you're reading this, understand this first.
Trading and Investing should NEVER be undertaken as a "for a living" kind of a full time profession unless you have a steady inflow of cash through other means.
Have a job. Keep building skills and learning.
Holding on to a day job or other businesses that bring in money frees you from the pressure of making money in the markets - which is the NUMBER 1 source of stress that leads to making impulsive decisions.
Such decisions usually lead to huge losses.
You think making money with the click of a mouse and a punch of a key is easy? It's easy once you have crossed the difficult phases. But to cross those phases, you need to put in the hours of learning, disciplining yourself, and becoming someone of steel like resolve.
So, ignore the naysayers.
But don't develop ideas like "I can become a millionaire in 3 years" or such unrealistic endeavors.
Set realistic goals. 10 years is a good horizon to become a skilled trader at taking money from the market.
Spend your first 10 years (while having a job or other income/cashflow sources) acquiring the skills to consistently carve out your edge.
Spend the rest of your life after that milking your edge.
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It looks like every symptom on Google search leads to cancer.
So, when you have a symptom that Google screams CANCER, should you be afraid?
Before I answer that for you, let's talk about Occam's Razor and how you can use it to simplify your life.
Let's dive in. 👇👇👇
1/ In the early 1900s, two physicists studied space and time and arrived at a similar conclusion: things tend to go a little bonkers within the space-time continuum.
Ex: The closer we get to moving at the speed of light, the more we slow down.
2/ Both the scientists arrived at the same results through their equations & derivations. But both had different explanations.
One suggested that the phenomenon was due to the changes that took place within "the ether". Another didn't refer to the ether at all.
Stories like these are why most people start a business.
And they are all wrought with survivorship bias.
Be very careful while getting inspired by such stories. Always ask, "how many edu-businesses started with Aakash and failed?" before you consider starting one of your own.
I am not discouraging you from starting a business.
By all means, start a business. That's one of the ways to the promised land of wealth.
But don't start a business because you're inspired by the success stories on media.
No founder comes up to media to discuss failure.
Failure stories also don't work that well commercially and don't provide enough fodder for media ratings.
Nobody discusses failure publicly. Very few are transparent enough to do that.
On conducting monte carlo analysis of the system, I understood that the probability of maxDD to be below 5% is only ~3%.
There was about 61% probability of the maxDD to be between 5-10%
and ~2% probability that it could be around 20-40%.
You need to be aware of these.
Once you know the odds of a certain range of maxDD happening, then you can confidently deploy your strategy.
You'd also face drawdowns that lie within your comfortable range instead of being misled by just the historical maxDD as it happened in the series of trades historically.
Systematic Trading, backtesting, etc., may sound like a current generation fad, but they are clearly not.
As far back as 1990s, several big funds, quant funds have used backtesting/exploration, etc., to develop systems to trade.
Only recently it has become viable for retail.
Until late 2010s, we didn't have faster internet speeds, access to better data, low cost brokers, access to ease-of-use programming languages/tools to backtest strategies thoroughly.
MATLAB was complicated. Excel was limited without VBA. VBA was not everyone's cup of tea.
Python going mainstream as a programming language alongside R programming made it possible for many people to start backtesting their ideas.
And proliferation of several helpful tools/libraries in Python has also helped several people move fast in backtesting.