Em 20 de janeiro, quando Joe Biden tomar posse como 46º presidente dos EUA, Jair Bolsonaro perderá o único aliado internacional relevante que lhe restava, deixando o Brasil ainda mais isolado. 👇🧵
Com Biden na Casa Branca, a pressão internacional contra Bolsonaro e o risco de boicotes contra produtos brasileiros aumentarão de maneira significativa.
O Partido Democrata vai controlar a Casa Branca, a Câmara e o Senado — e já tinha uma péssima imagem do mandatário brasileiro. Desde a vitória democrata, Bolsonaro e Ernesto Araújo conseguiram a façanha de piorar a situação.
Na ânsia de agradar à própria base, os dois reforçaram a teoria conspiratória de fraude nas eleições presidenciais dos EUA, efetivamente questionando a legitimidade do governo Biden.
Em vez de articular uma estratégia sobre como o Brasil deveria se adequar às mudanças produzidas pela derrota de Trump, o assunto virou “tabu” no Itamaraty. Araújo ainda causou revolta entre democratas e muitos republicanos ao chamar os invasores do Capitólio de “cidadãos de bem”
O comentário gerou a impressão de que o chanceler brasileiro mostrava apoio à tentativa de golpe e aos atos de terrorismo doméstico nos Estados Unidos.
Enquanto Araújo estiver no cargo, será difícil evitar uma ruptura na relação com os EUA.

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More from @OliverStuenkel

11 Jan
Por que a política americana é tão polarizada?

Uma maneira interessante de explicar as profundas divisões políticas nos EUA é analisar como o colapso da União Soviética eliminou a ameaça existencial que ajudava a estabilizar a política norte-americana. 🧵👇
A grande maioria dos analistas viu no fim da Guerra Fria um triunfo histórico dos EUA. À primeira vista, a década de 1990 lhes dava razão: foi um período marcado por um boom econômico nos EUA e muita confiança de um país que se via, pela 1ª vez na história, sem rival no planeta.
Em retrospectiva, porém, ficou claro: o colapso da URSS plantou na sociedade norte-americana a semente da polarização destrutiva, hoje uma marca registrada da política contemporânea dos EUA.
Read 9 tweets
11 Jan
Like historical fascist leaders, Trump has presented himself as the single source of truth. His use of the term “fake news” echoed the Nazi smear Lügenpresse (“lying press”); like the Nazis, he referred to reporters as “enemies of the people.” nytimes.com/2021/01/09/mag…
Like Hitler, Trump came to power at a moment when the conventional press had taken a beating; the financial crisis of 2008 did to American newspapers what the Great Depression did to German ones.
The Nazis thought that they could use radio to replace the old pluralism of the newspaper; Trump tried to do the same with Twitter.
Read 5 tweets
19 Dec 20
Amazing article on how Russia stands to benefit from climate change, turning it into an agricultural powerhouse. Since the year 2000, the country's agricultural exports have multiplied sixteen times.
Since 2015, Russia’s wheat exports have jumped 100 percent, to about 44 million tons, surpassing those of the United States and Europe. Russia is now the largest wheat exporter in the world, responsible for nearly a quarter of the global market.
Crop yields from Texas to Nebraska could fall by up to 90% by as soon as 2040 as the ideal growing region moves toward the Canadian border.
Read 6 tweets
18 Dec 20
Bolsonaro's anti-vaccine stance in the face of more than 180,000 covid-related deaths in Brazil may strike many observers as political suicide, but a lot suggests the president's gamble may not hurt him politically. 🧵👇
First, remember that Bolsonaro must keep his loyal followers mobilized and society polarized. Deepening polarization is mandatory, no matter in which context. The anti-vaccination stance is just another reiteration of the same old pattern: the more polarizing, the better.
Supporting the anti-vaccine movement is particularly useful to fuel the battle between the globalist and arrogant elite vs. the common man. Even Bolsonaro voters who are neutral about the vaccine realize that elites often regard them like hillbillies stuck in the Middle Ages.
Read 7 tweets
13 Dec 20
Brazil's president Bolsonaro is no longer trying to hide the fact that he regards his vice-president, general Hamilton Mourão, as a major rival. 🧵👇folhadelondrina.com.br/politica/bolso…
While Mourão has done much to protect the president, his many corrective measures have led him to contradict Bolsonaro so frequently that a growing number of hard-core Bolsonaro supporters now regard Mourão as a traitor who is overtly sabotaging his boss, plotting to replace him.
Given how personal the attacks by anti-globalists against Mourão & his fellow generals have become, and how deafening the president’s silence has been in response, it seems unlikely that the relationship between Bolsonaro & his vice president can recover.
Read 7 tweets
12 Dec 20
How is it possible that Maduro is still in power, despite Venezuela's collapse? While it’s tempting to describe him as crazy or erratic, a closer analysis reveals that Maduro operates according to a clear – and effective – set of principles. 👇🧵
It of course also helped that the US government has, paradoxically, done everything possible to strengthen Maduro. Trump never cared about regime change in Venezuela. The goal of his Venezuela policy was to win in Florida in 2020. He succeeded.

Maduro has achieved a remarkable feat: most leaders in the region and elsewhere have grown tired of paying attention to Venezuela. Even better for him, there's a consensus that even his departure would not really change much.
Read 5 tweets

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