1/ Things seem really bad at the moment. That's because things ARE really bad at the moment. But I wanted to share a perspective that might encourage you a little.
2/ Deaths have been so heavily concentrated among the elderly that even the current very limited vaccine rollout should have big benefits soon. Here's some back-of-the-envelope maths:
3/ As @ActuaryByDay told @BBCMoreOrLess a few weeks ago, more than a third of all Covid deaths in the first wave in the UK were among the few hundred thousand people who live in care homes residents. Another third were among people over the age of 80.
4/ There are fewer than 4 million people in those highly vulnerable groups. UK had administered nearly 3 million vaccine doses already, as of 11 Jan. ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…
5/ If vaccines were 100% effective (they aren't) and if only the over-80s had been vaccinated (not so: NHS and care home workers are also front of queue, for good reasons) we would already be close to protecting the majority of the over 80s.
6/ The reality is slower and messier, of course. But the big picture is that although we're just getting started, we're already vaccinating large numbers of the most vulnerable. What difference will this make?
7/ At first, no difference at all. It takes a few days to get any protection - perhaps two weeks to get significant protection. So, figure a two week delay before we see reduced infections among the elderly; add another 3-4 weeks before we see reduced deaths.
8/ But by the end of February I would expect to see a very noticeable difference to death rates. I'm no epidemiologist, just a nerd with a calculator. But my calculator is giving me some hope.
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