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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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14 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Since February 2020, all-cause mortality shows that the US has seen nearly 470,000 more deaths than expected.

Yesterday, the US reported 4,336 COVID-19 deaths, a new maximum.

cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
New York City reports the first 2 cases of the UK variant, 1 with recent travel from the UK.

The mayor calls for all flights from the United Kingdom to be canceled immediately by the federal government.

amny.com/news/two-nyc-r…
Bolivia sees cases surge, now at the level of their peak in July. Test positivity is very high, 42% and increasing.

Yesterday they reported 39 deaths.
Yesterday Italy reported 17,529 cases and 620 deaths. Daily cases are now at roughly 50% of their November peak.

Today the Health Minister announced that their state of emergency will be extended to the end of April.

reuters.com/article/us-hea…

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
15 Jan
India continues to see significant progress toward containment:

-Daily cases down from 100k to 17k
-Daily deaths down from 1,100 to 200
-Test positivity down from 12% to 2% ImageImageImage
Nearly every region is seeing improvement, many of which have very large populations.

Uttar Pradesh has a population of ~200 million, yet they are currently reporting only ~600 cases per day.

Policy details: ndtv.com/india-news/ind…

See more:
endcoronavirus.org/india-states-ut ImageImageImageImage
Japan begins to see improvements in daily cases. Yesterday the Prime Minister announced that it will expand its State of Emergency declaration to now include 11 prefectures, and will ban all foreign nationals from entering the country.

cnn.com/2021/01/13/asi… Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
13 Jan
Netherlands cases continue to decrease across the country, and announced today they will extend current lockdown by 3 weeks.

The Dutch Prime Minister says there is “no other choice” and cites concern over new variants.

apnews.com/article/public… ImageImageImage
Importantly, the Netherlands has reported 100 cases of the more transmissible UK variant B117, half linked to school outbreaks.

A new cluster of COVID infections linked to an elementary school included at least 30 cases of the new variant.

In Canada, daily cases and deaths continue to increase, primarily in Ontario and Quebec. Ontario declares a state of emergency and issues a stay at home order.

In Ontario, test positivity is surging for all age groups, and is very high in children:
ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
10 Jan
Update: LongCovid and male infertility

Several articles have shown potential COVID harm to male fertility. A new article is much more explicit.

Massive damage to germ cells (cells that become sperm) indicates potential loss of male fertility.

1/
This autopsy study doesn’t show effect of mild cases. However, studies of mild and asymptomatic cases indicate the virus can reach multiple organs. The ACE2 receptor is highly expressed in testes.

2/
Title: Pathological and molecular examinations of postmortem testis biopsies reveal SARS-CoV-2 infection in the testis and spermatogenesis damage in COVID-19 patients

nature.com/articles/s4142…

3/
Read 11 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
10 Jan
CovidZero: How to end the pandemic in 5 weeks

CovidZero is an EXIT strategy.

1/
It is unlike the usual strategy called "living with the virus" "mitigation" "flattening the curve" or "allowing the disease to become endemic" with or without a vaccine which is passive, reactive, ineffective and massively costly in lives, long term health, and the economy.

2/
CovidZero is proactive with a goal of normal life as it was pre-pandemic by eliminating the virus. We need to do this as fast as possible to save lives, save livelihoods and minimize the time we must take extraordinary actions.

3/
Read 23 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
9 Jan
The 7-day average of both daily cases and daily deaths in Mexico are seeing record highs.

Mexico City reported more than 5,700 excess deaths per million during the outbreak, and hospitalizations are surging in recent weeks.

Cases in Germany have decreased from peak but daily deaths are still at highest levels.

Germany recently surpassed the US in daily deaths per capita.

Yesterday they reported 1,152 deaths.
UK has a rapid surge in daily deaths reflecting rapid spread of new variant.

Yesterday: 1,162
Today: 1,352 (a record high)

bbc.com/news/uk-555941…
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
8 Jan
Breaking: Coronavirus Update

Irish Chief Medical Officer and his team estimate that transmission rate R has more than doubled in 3 weeks, from 1.1-1.3 to 2.4-3.

Ireland reports a new record in daily cases: 7832. ImageImage
In Ireland, roughly 25% of recent samples that were sequenced (47 out of 189) are confirmed to be the B.1.1.7 variant.


Doubling time for hospital admission is currently ~5.5 days.
Texas reports their first case of the UK B.1.1.7 variant. The infected patient is a man between the ages of 30-40 years old in southwest Harris County and has had no history of traveling. Image
Read 7 tweets

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