*CONTEXT* Quantifying hidden populations such as victims of modern slavery is challenging; yet, needed to develop strategies leading to legislation, inc. the Modern Slavery Act 2015 2/n
*AIM* Investigate the stability and robustness of various multiple‐systems‐estimate methods to measure modern slavery using Kosovo 🇽🇰as case study
*METHOD* Use of multiple‐systems‐estimate methods to develop a new Markov chain Monte Carlo #Bayesian approach
3/n
*FINDINGS* the proposed approach offer robust and stable results of death toll due to conflict
*BONUS* Software & data sets are freely and publicly available! 😎 4/n
*CONTEXT* Shipping freight rates are notoriously volatile 📉 and shipping investors are perceived to be risk loving 5/n
*AIM* Explore the stochastic properties of freight rates and derives the analytical equations for their moments in downside and upside markets
*METHOD* Use of a two‐piece extension of the generalised error distribution to develop pricing equations across shipping segments
6/n
*FINDINGS* Positive skewness premium exists suggesting that shipping investors are willing to accept lower expected returns for the opportunity to earn high pay‐offs in the future
Keep tuned 👀 - more TOMORROW! We are highlighting the top 3 articles!
*CONTEXT* Dynamic prediction models provide predicted probabilities that can be updated over time as data become available. There is growing interest in the use of #machinelearning 🤖; yet, their use in the context of dynamic survival #prediction has been limited.
2/n
*CONTEXT* Standard network meta‐analysis & indirect comparisons combine aggregate data from multiple studies, assuming that any effect modifiers are balanced across pops. & often incurring in aggregation bias 2/n
*AIM* Propose a new method extending the standard network meta‐analysis framework
*METHOD* Use of general numerical approach using quasi‐Monte‐Carlo integration 3/n