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Jon Worth

@jonworth

16 Jan

So the CDU has gone for Laschet as Party Leader

That means Röttgen and Merz will not become Chancellor Candidate, but Laschet or Söder, and possibly Spahn, still can...

🆕 #CDUVorsitz V4.0.0 diagram now out!

Headline numbers - chances to be Chancellor Candidate
Laschet 5️⃣2️⃣%
Söder 4️⃣3️⃣%
Spahn 5️⃣%

Why is Laschet the slight favourite?

Essentially because I cannot see - in the time *before* the decision on the Chancellor Candidate is to be made - how things can go very badly for the CDU. And if the CDU is content, they will not call Söder

Read 6 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

16 Jan

OK then.

So the new CDU Party Leader #CDUvorsitz is known - it's Armin Laschet.

This 🧵 will explain why he won, explain what he means, and outline what happens next.

1/20

At the CDU's party congress today, the three candidates - Laschet, Friedrich Merz & Norbert Röttgen - gave 15 min speeches

That was the first signal of what was to come... Today we saw the very best of Laschet - playing the reliable, careful person, not heavy on detail

2/20

Merz by contrast gave an ill focused speech, and did not make a single reference to Merkel or AKK, the outgoing party leader. He seems to have learned nothing

Röttgen, long the outsider, gave a speech with a lot more detail - especially on green issues and the future

3/20

Read 20 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

15 Jan

What's the biggest error in all the reporting about #CDUvorsitz?

People not understanding the process

This piece for example:
n-tv.de/politik/Norber…

1/10

The key line: "Zieht er [Röttgen] seine Kandidatur für den Vorsitz durch, steigen die Chancen auf einen Sieg von Friedrich Merz."

"If he [Röttgen] continues his candidacy for leader, the chances of a victory for Friedrich Merz increase."

2/10

I'm pretty sure that's *not* right.

Why?

Because of the process

If Merz, Laschet and Röttgen were up against each other in a first past the post, 1 round election, it would be so. Merz would likely get +/- 40%, Röttgen and Laschet +/- 30% each, Merz would win

3/10

Read 10 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

15 Jan

@UKandEU

So 🇩🇪 CDU chooses its new party leader #CDUvorsitz *tomorrow morning*

This 🧵 gives an overview of the articles *in English* about the process

I've written a summary of the entire process for @UKandEU here: ukandeu.ac.uk/angela-merkel-…

1/8

@philipoltermann

With a focus on this weekend's decisions, this by @philipoltermann for The Guardian is a good starting point

theguardian.com/world/2021/jan…

2/8

@JeremyCliffe

Meanwhile @JeremyCliffe for New Statesman puts all of what's happening now into the wider context of how Merkel changed the CDU's voter coalition, and examines whether that can hold now

newstatesman.com/world/europe/2…

3/8

Read 9 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

14 Jan

@tom_nuttall

So @tom_nuttall asked earlier for guesses as to who will win the CDU leadership election...

It's pretty certain Merz will make it to the #CDUVorsitz 2nd round

Who would he have better chances to *BEAT* in the 2nd round? Do justify your choice by replying!

https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1349707458034495491

Here's Tom's original poll:

https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1349707458034495491

I'd argue that Merz would sooner face Laschet in Round 2

Why?

Because there are more Röttgen supporters who might have Merz as 2nd preference than there are Laschet supporters who would

Read 5 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

13 Jan

2021 is the end of Angela Merkel's time as Chancellor of 🇩🇪

The process to choose her successor starts this week

This 🧵 will explain all the important stages of this rather complex process!

1/25

There are three stages to this:
1️⃣ Merkel's CDU Party choses a new Party Leader on 16 Jan (tag: #CDUVorsitz)
2️⃣ Later in spring Members of the Bundestag of CDU and CSU choose who will be Chancellor Candidate
3️⃣ Bundestag Election 26 Sep, followed by coalition negotiations

2/25

1️⃣ CDU choses new Party Leader

Merkel has not been CDU party leader since 2018. Current leader - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer - is stopping. 1001 Delegates at a party conference taking place digitally 15-16 Jan choose new Leader, in 2 rounds of voting. 3 candidates running

3/25

Read 26 tweets

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