Thread by @jonworth

What's the biggest error in all the reporting about #CDUvorsitz?

People not understanding the process

This piece for example:
n-tv.de/politik/Norber…

1/10

The key line: "Zieht er [Röttgen] seine Kandidatur für den Vorsitz durch, steigen die Chancen auf einen Sieg von Friedrich Merz."

"If he [Röttgen] continues his candidacy for leader, the chances of a victory for Friedrich Merz increase."

2/10

I'm pretty sure that's *not* right.

Why?

Because of the process

If Merz, Laschet and Röttgen were up against each other in a first past the post, 1 round election, it would be so. Merz would likely get +/- 40%, Röttgen and Laschet +/- 30% each, Merz would win

3/10

But that's not how the process works

In the first round, the three candidates are up against each other, *but if none of them gets 50%, the top 2 go into a run-off* - "Stichwahl" in German

4/10

Example: say the result is Merz 40%, Laschet 32%, Röttgen 28% - means Röttgen drops out, and in the run-off Merz would face Laschet

The decisive question then becomes: those who backed Röttgen in round 1, who will they back in the run off?

5/10

And as both Laschet and Röttgen are centrists / pragmatists, we can assume more ex-Röttgen votes would go to Laschet than to Merz, and more ex-Laschet votes would go to Röttgen than to Merz

6/10

Is there anything else to suggest Röttgen would necessarily fare worse in a run-off against Merz than Laschet would?

No, not in my view. Party grandees fearful of Merz would likely swing behind Röttgen to stop Merz

7/10

Indeed it may indeed even be the opposite - Röttgen, with his stronger views on foreign policy, and firmer commitments on green issues - may even fare *better* than über-pragmatist Laschet would in a run off against Merz

8/10

There is of course the danger than Merz wins in the first round - with over 50% of the vote. But then whether he's up against 1 or 2 further candidates is 🤷‍♂️ - he'd have won anyway

9/10

So - because of the process - don't ask: "which of the three candidates is the most popular?"

Instead ask: "can either Laschet or Röttgen win a run off against Merz?"

And the answer is yes, either could. And there's no point either dropping out.

10/10