So the CDU has gone for Laschet as Party Leader
That means Röttgen and Merz will not become Chancellor Candidate, but Laschet or Söder, and possibly Spahn, still can...
🆕 #CDUVorsitz V4.0.0 diagram now out!
That means Röttgen and Merz will not become Chancellor Candidate, but Laschet or Söder, and possibly Spahn, still can...
🆕 #CDUVorsitz V4.0.0 diagram now out!
Headline numbers - chances to be Chancellor Candidate
Laschet 5️⃣2️⃣%
Söder 4️⃣3️⃣%
Spahn 5️⃣%
Laschet 5️⃣2️⃣%
Söder 4️⃣3️⃣%
Spahn 5️⃣%
Why is Laschet the slight favourite?
Essentially because I cannot see - in the time *before* the decision on the Chancellor Candidate is to be made - how things can go very badly for the CDU. And if the CDU is content, they will not call Söder
Essentially because I cannot see - in the time *before* the decision on the Chancellor Candidate is to be made - how things can go very badly for the CDU. And if the CDU is content, they will not call Söder
However were there to be any sign that something is going wrong, Laschet's rather fragile victory means the party might be rather swift to dump him, and call on Söder instead
This is reflected in the diagram
This is reflected in the diagram
V3.0.0 of this diagram - from before the vote - turned out to be pretty accurate...
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1347564653656887296
As ever high res PDFs and PNGs, and ODS calculations, and @drawio XML is here: jonworth.eu/downloads/cduc…
For now this V4.0.0 is just in English. I might translate it later on as well!
For now this V4.0.0 is just in English. I might translate it later on as well!
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