JUST IN: NASA confirms that 2020 was the hottest year in recorded history – very slightly higher, though statistically indistinguishable from 2016.
Several important things to note here.

The most important: The continuing long-term trend of catastrophic warming is what scientists are most concerned about. Not whether this year is a fraction of a degree above or below another year.

That trend is due to human activity. A line graph of years from ...
If you break down the data by land vs ocean, you'll see another very important trend: Temperatures on land (where we all live) are warming faster than ocean temperatures.

Also, the data is much more clear: 2020 was the hottest year ever measured on our planet's continents. line graph showing two dive...
The pattern of warming in 2020 is also very clear: The Arctic is warming much more quickly than the rest of the world. This year, parts of the Siberian Arctic were 6.6º Celsius (!) warmer than long-term average.

Large parts of the Earth (in bright red) have now warmed 2-4ºC. global map of the warming i...
An independent analysis by @NOAA, also released today, shows that 2020 was the 2nd warmest year in history, very slightly cooler than 2016.

Again, the long-term trend is very clear: Every single year since 1977 has been warmer than the 20th century average. A bar graph showing annual ...
According to NOAA, "The seven warmest years in the 1880–2020 record have all occurred since 2014, while the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005."

The decade of 2011-2020 was the hottest decade in recorded history. Bar graph showing global te...
Looking only at land temperatures, NOAA agrees with NASA that 2020 was the hottest year ever recorded on the Earth's continents.

2016 and 2020 were the first two years in history with global land temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold. Bar graph showing global la...
The only corners of the entire Earth's land area that were even slightly cooler than normal in 2020 were parts of Alaska and Canada, a small coastal section of Peru and Chile, a small part of Australia and South Africa, and a patch of South Asia.

Everywhere else was hot. map showing global temperat...
The fastest warming places on the planet are warming by 0.5°C per *decade* – that's terrifying.

Northeast US and Atlantic Canada, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the entire Arctic region are at greatest risk of quickly rising temperatures.

We are in a climate emergency. a map showing the rate of g...
Looking ahead to 2021, it's almost certain that it will be slightly cooler than 2020 (because of La Niña), but it's also virtually certain that it will rank as one of the 10 hottest years in history.

We need to treat this like the emergency it is – like our lives depend on it. NOAA rankings prediction fo...

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More from @EricHolthaus

11 Jan
I am not above sharing cute pictures of my kids to get you to sign up as a paid subscriber of The Phoenix

thephoenix.substack.com/subscribe?coup… Image
Here they are stuffing leaves into my mouth Image
Here they are mailing their first letter ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
7 Oct 20
Hi friends, some personal news:

Today I’m launching a new Substack called *The Phoenix*, because the world is on fire and we’ve got to build a new one from the ashes.

This is a publication for climate revolutionaries.

I'm so ready. Subscribe here:
thephoenix.substack.com/p/welcome-to-t… Circular painted logo of a red orange and yellow phoenix bir
For years, I've repeated these words: We are in a climate emergency.

Now, I’m ready to take the next step.

Real change comes by demanding justice and a world that works for everyone.

Because we need to see what we’re fighting for, not just what we’re fighting against.
My main goal with The Phoenix is to change the narrative of the climate movement.

We've got to shift climate storytelling away from inevitable apocalypse towards the possibility of a better world; towards catastrophic success not catastrophic failure.

I can't do this alone.
Read 10 tweets
6 Oct 20
wow.

In a nutshell, Hurricane Delta is well on its way to becoming one of the fastest-intensifying hurricanes in history if these numbers hold.

Delta has already strengthened from tropical depression to hurricane in 18 hours. This would take it to Cat 3 or 4 by tomorrow.
Delta has just strengthened by 40kt in 24 hours, something that only about 1/40 hurricanes do. The forecast is for it to do nearly the same thing again over the next 24 hours. That's unreal.
Earlier *this year*, Hurricane Laura became the fastest-intensifying Gulf of Mexico hurricane in history, strengthening by 55kt in 24 hours. Delta could strengthen 70kt in about 36 hours on this pace.
Read 4 tweets
5 Oct 20
NOAA hurricane hunters just took off from Tampa, FL en route for Tropical Storm Delta.

It'll be our first direct look at the storm's intensity and structure, and should help improve the model forecasts this evening for a storm that now looks almost certain to hit the Gulf Coast.
Looks like Delta is continuing to quickly strengthen. These data support the NHC's current intensity of 60mph winds, or perhaps a hair more. At this rate, Delta could be a hurricane later tonight.

First NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde in the center of TS Delta finds a central pressure of 984mb. This is a rapidly strengthening system.
Read 5 tweets
15 Sep 20
The ice shelves of the Pine Island glacier and Thwaites glacier have begun to fracture, according to a new study published today.

These are, quite simply, the most important chunks of ice in the world, and they will likely determine (in part) the fate of our civilization.
Back in 2017, I described this scenario as the beginning stages of an "ice apocalypse":

grist.org/article/antarc…
As always, @chriscmooney has a masterful description of exactly what today's study means.

In short, the natural brakes on the glaciers are shearing off. Their flow towards the sea is accelerating.

washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
Read 5 tweets
14 Sep 20
As terrifying as Sally's rapidly-intensifying winds are, its biggest threat is likely going to be incredibly heavy rainfall.

Latest forecasts are for a 3-4 day slow loop over southern Mississippi & Alabama, and up to 27 inches of rainfall.

Be prepared for catastrophic flooding. a graphic showing predicted rainfall from hurricane Sally, s
Scenarios that come to mind:

Danny (1997) - Alabama
Georges (1998) - Mississippi
Allison (2001) - Texas
Florence (2018) - Carolinas

These storms brought 25-35 inches of rain over a span of four days, about what Sally is expected to do.
There's increasing scientific consensus that slow-moving, rapidly-intensifying, extremely heavy rain producing hurricanes on the Gulf Coast -- like Sally -- are going to be a hallmark of climate change.

phys.org/news/2020-04-h…
Read 6 tweets

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