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14 Jan, 6 tweets, 2 min read
The GOP's House gains in 2020 are a bit overstated (especially by @GOPLeader, who is motivated to have as good a story to tell as possible).

But the GOP is down 30 House seats since Trump took office. Here's the math.
States where the GOP lost seats in 2018 and did NOT gain them back in 2020:

Arizona (1 seat)
Colorado (1 seat)
Georgia (2 seats)
Illinois (2 seats)
Kansas (1 seat)
Maine (1 seat)
Michigan (2 seats)
Pennsylvania (3 seats)
Texas (2 seats)
Virginia (3 seats)
Washington (1 seat)
States where the GOP lost seats in 2018 and gained some or all of them back in 2020:

California (lost 7 in 2018, got back 3 in 2020)
Florida (lost 2, got back 2)
Iowa (lost 2, got back 2)
New Jersey (lost 4, got back 1)
New Mexico (lost 1, got back 1)
New York (lost 3, got back 1)
Oklahoma (lost 1, got back 1)
South Carolina (lost 1, got back 1)
Utah (lost 1, got back 1)
The only state in the entire country where the GOP netted MORE House seats than it had in 2017 was Minnesota. It netted a single House seat there.
Also note:

Of the 5 states that Biden beat Trump in which Trump had won in 2016, Republicans have a net loss of US House seats in 4 of them (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania) since Trump took office.

These are the same voters who vote for President in those states.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter Profile picture
16 Jan
Here is a list of the members of the US House of Representatives who voted against certifying state election results on January 6th who won their seats in 2020 by the smallest margins (and who may be most vulnerable in 2022):
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

cookpolitical.com/2020-house-vot…?
Mike Garcia (CA-25, won by 0.10 points)
Burgess Owens (UT-04, won by 1.00 points)
Beth Van Duyne (TX-24, won by 1.30 points)
Jim Hagedorn (MN-01, won by 3.10 points)
Carlos Gimenez (FL-26, won by 3.40 points)
Stephanie Bice (OK-05, won by 4.10 points)
David Schweikert (AZ-06, won by 4.30 points)
Bob Good (VA-05, won by 5.10 points)
Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02, won by 5.80 points)
Lauren Boebert (CO-03, won by 6.20 points)
Nichole Malliotakis (NY-11, won by 6.30 points)
Richard Hudson (NY-08, won by 6.60 points)
Read 13 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
16 Jan
In addition to the places where Trump and the GOP lost since 2017, it’s also noteworthy to look at the places where it has been trending downward.

What about the states where Trump won but yet did worse than other recent Republicans?
There are a bunch of states where Trump did worse than Republicans usually do in Presidential elections. Even though he ultimately won the state.
In Alaska, Trump did worse than any GOP Presidential candidate since Bush in 1992.

1996 - Dole won by 17.53 points
2000 - Bush won by 30.95
2004 - Bush won by 25.55
2008 - McCain won by 21.54
2012 - Romney won by 13.99
2016 - Trump won by 14.73
2020 - Trump won by 10.06
Read 6 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
15 Jan
I can sense the damage that the Trump era has done to the credibility of Church in America just by my own reaction to things.

I’ve been a believer for more than three decades. Bible College Grad. Used the Shepherd’s Guide anytime I needed to hire help.

And I’M disgusted.
Yesterday, I saw an ad for a Christian Academy for kids. A few years ago, I would have been drawn to look into it. But now when I see it, I can’t get the image of the Trump Evangelical, the folks who are sadly especially common among my white evangelical brethren, out of my mind.
When I hear people who are prominent in ministry talk about societal issues or even the Gospel, I can’t help wondering if they’re among the many who tolerated and even celebrated the evil of the last four years. I ask myself “should I bother listening to them?”
Read 5 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
14 Jan
Trump’s false claims that he won the election that he lost were centered on six states - the five states which Biden flipped (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) along with Nevada.

Let’s look deeper at the elections in these six states.
Arizona

Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5 points, which was the slimmest margin that any Republican won the state by since 1996 (when Bill Clinton won the state).

Trump lost Arizona by 0.31 points in 2020.
When Trump came to office in 2017, Arizona had two Republican US Senators. Today, AZ has two Democratic US Senators.

In 2017, AZ was represented in the House of Representatives by 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats. Now it has 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans.
Read 22 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
12 Jan
People don't seem to understand how bad the Trump years for the GOP in terms of raw electoral losses.

Here's a set of maps to illustrate how bad it was, and also to reiterate why Trump lost the election.

Map 1: States where the GOP lost seats in State Houses since 2017.
Map 2: States where the GOP lost seats in State Senates since 2017.
Map 3: States where the GOP lost Governorships since 2017.
Read 17 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
11 Jan
While Trump lost the election in November, the fact that he choose to lie, try to overturn a popular election and ultimately incite a violent mob instead of conceding, he lost a lot more since then:

- He's suffered the further humiliation of losing 61 out of 62 lawsuits.
- He was humiliated by having the Supreme Court which is comprised of three Justices that he himself nominated rejecting his false claims twice in a single week.

- His already low approval rating according to Gallup has fallen even lower. He was at 46% on Election Day. 39% now.
- He's lost many of his most loyal allies. Mike Pence. Mitch McConnell. Lindsey Graham. The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board. The National Association of Manufacturers.

- He's lost business. The PGA has pulled the plug on Bedminster. His brand is more toxic than ever.
Read 9 tweets

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