Trump’s false claims that he won the election that he lost were centered on six states - the five states which Biden flipped (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) along with Nevada.

Let’s look deeper at the elections in these six states.
Arizona

Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5 points, which was the slimmest margin that any Republican won the state by since 1996 (when Bill Clinton won the state).

Trump lost Arizona by 0.31 points in 2020.
When Trump came to office in 2017, Arizona had two Republican US Senators. Today, AZ has two Democratic US Senators.

In 2017, AZ was represented in the House of Representatives by 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats. Now it has 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans.
When Trump came to office, Arizona had a Republican Secretary of State. Now it has a Democratic Secretary of State.

On top of that, Republicans lost an Arizona State Senate seat and 4 State House seats since 2017.
Exit polls in 2016 showed that Trump won Independents in Arizona by 3 points.

Exit polls in 2020 showed that Trump lost Independents in Arizona by 9 points.

That’s the broader context behind Trump’s loss in Arizona.
Georgia

Trump won Georgia in 2016 by 5.13 points, which was the lowest margin that any Republican Presidential candidate won the state by since, again, 1996.

Trump lost Georgia in 2020 by 0.24 points.
When Trump started his term in 2017, Georgia had two Republican Senators. Now it has two Democratic Senators.

Georgia still has a Republican Governor but he won his seat in 2018 by only two points.
Since 2017, Georgia Republicans have lost 2 US House seats, 4 Georgia State Senate seats and 15 State House seats.

In 2016, Trump won Independents in Georgia by 11 points. In 2020, Trump lost Independents in Georgia by 9 points.

That’s how Trump lost Georgia.
Michigan

In 2016, Trump won Michigan by only 10,704 votes or 0.23 points. He was the only Republican to win the state since 1988. But he won it by an extremely narrow margin.
When Trump took office, Michigan has a Republican Governor, a Republican Secretary of State and a Republican Attorney General.

Now Michigan has a Democratic Governor, a Democratic Secretary of State and a Democratic Attorney General.
In addition, since 2017, Michigan Republicans have lost 2 US House seats and also had two other Republican Congressmen publicly part ways with the GOP. The #MIGOP has lost 5 Michigan State Senate seats and 5 Michigan State House seats.
In 2016, Trump won Independents in Michigan by 16 points.

In 2020, Trump lost Independents in Michigan, a state he barely won in the first place, by 6 points.

That’s the extra bit of detail of Trump’s 2020 defeat in Michigan.
(Taking a short break and will finish with Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin next)
(I’m back)

Nevada

Trump lost Nevada in 2016 by 2.42 points and lost it in 2020 by nearly the exact same margin - 2.39 points. The last time Nevada voted for a Republican in a Presidential election was 2004.
When Trump came to office in 2017, Nevada had 1 Republican Senator and 1 Democratic Senator. Now the state has 2 Democratic Senators.

Nevada also had a Republican Governor and a Republican Attorney General when Trump was sworn in. Now both offices are held by Democrats.
In 2016, exit polls showed that Trump won Nevada Independents by 13 points. In 2020, the same exit polls showed that Trump lost Nevada Independents by 6 points (he did 9 points better with Republicans and 8 points worse with Democrats).

And that’s how Nevada went.
Pennsylvania

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since 1988, albeit a narrow won (0.72 points).

In 2020, Trump lost Pennsylvania by 1.16 points.
In between 2016 and 2020, Pennsylvania Republicans lost 3 US House seats, 6 Pennsylvania State Senate seats and 10 State House seats.

In 2016, Trump won Independents in PA by 7 points. In 2020, he lost PA Independents by 8 points.

So, Trump losing PA is easy to understand.
Wisconsin is a state that has long been closer than most people realize. It’s been decided by less than a point in four of the last six elections, although 2016 was the first time it went blue since 1984z

In 2016, Trump won WI by 0.77 points. And in 2029 he lost it by 0.63 pts.
And like the other states, Republicans have seen some losses in Wisconsin during the Trump years. When he started his term, WI had a Republican Governor and a Republican Attorney General. Democrats hold both offices today.
Republican also lost 3 Wisconsin State House seats while gaining a State Senate seat.

In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin Independents by 10 points according to exit polls. In 2020, the same exit polls show Trump lost WI Independents by 12 points (he gained 2 points with Republicans).
Not only is there NO credible evidence to support Trump’s claims that he won the election which motivated his Cult to go crazy last week. But it’a a lot easier to believe 2+ 2 = 4 than it takes to believe Hugo Chavez rigged voting machines - or whatever the weird kids think now.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

16 Jan
Here is a list of the members of the US House of Representatives who voted against certifying state election results on January 6th who won their seats in 2020 by the smallest margins (and who may be most vulnerable in 2022):
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

cookpolitical.com/2020-house-vot…?
Mike Garcia (CA-25, won by 0.10 points)
Burgess Owens (UT-04, won by 1.00 points)
Beth Van Duyne (TX-24, won by 1.30 points)
Jim Hagedorn (MN-01, won by 3.10 points)
Carlos Gimenez (FL-26, won by 3.40 points)
Stephanie Bice (OK-05, won by 4.10 points)
David Schweikert (AZ-06, won by 4.30 points)
Bob Good (VA-05, won by 5.10 points)
Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02, won by 5.80 points)
Lauren Boebert (CO-03, won by 6.20 points)
Nichole Malliotakis (NY-11, won by 6.30 points)
Richard Hudson (NY-08, won by 6.60 points)
Read 13 tweets
16 Jan
In addition to the places where Trump and the GOP lost since 2017, it’s also noteworthy to look at the places where it has been trending downward.

What about the states where Trump won but yet did worse than other recent Republicans?
There are a bunch of states where Trump did worse than Republicans usually do in Presidential elections. Even though he ultimately won the state.
In Alaska, Trump did worse than any GOP Presidential candidate since Bush in 1992.

1996 - Dole won by 17.53 points
2000 - Bush won by 30.95
2004 - Bush won by 25.55
2008 - McCain won by 21.54
2012 - Romney won by 13.99
2016 - Trump won by 14.73
2020 - Trump won by 10.06
Read 6 tweets
15 Jan
I can sense the damage that the Trump era has done to the credibility of Church in America just by my own reaction to things.

I’ve been a believer for more than three decades. Bible College Grad. Used the Shepherd’s Guide anytime I needed to hire help.

And I’M disgusted.
Yesterday, I saw an ad for a Christian Academy for kids. A few years ago, I would have been drawn to look into it. But now when I see it, I can’t get the image of the Trump Evangelical, the folks who are sadly especially common among my white evangelical brethren, out of my mind.
When I hear people who are prominent in ministry talk about societal issues or even the Gospel, I can’t help wondering if they’re among the many who tolerated and even celebrated the evil of the last four years. I ask myself “should I bother listening to them?”
Read 5 tweets
14 Jan
The GOP's House gains in 2020 are a bit overstated (especially by @GOPLeader, who is motivated to have as good a story to tell as possible).

But the GOP is down 30 House seats since Trump took office. Here's the math.
States where the GOP lost seats in 2018 and did NOT gain them back in 2020:

Arizona (1 seat)
Colorado (1 seat)
Georgia (2 seats)
Illinois (2 seats)
Kansas (1 seat)
Maine (1 seat)
Michigan (2 seats)
Pennsylvania (3 seats)
Texas (2 seats)
Virginia (3 seats)
Washington (1 seat)
States where the GOP lost seats in 2018 and gained some or all of them back in 2020:

California (lost 7 in 2018, got back 3 in 2020)
Florida (lost 2, got back 2)
Iowa (lost 2, got back 2)
New Jersey (lost 4, got back 1)
New Mexico (lost 1, got back 1)
Read 6 tweets
12 Jan
People don't seem to understand how bad the Trump years for the GOP in terms of raw electoral losses.

Here's a set of maps to illustrate how bad it was, and also to reiterate why Trump lost the election.

Map 1: States where the GOP lost seats in State Houses since 2017.
Map 2: States where the GOP lost seats in State Senates since 2017.
Map 3: States where the GOP lost Governorships since 2017.
Read 17 tweets
11 Jan
While Trump lost the election in November, the fact that he choose to lie, try to overturn a popular election and ultimately incite a violent mob instead of conceding, he lost a lot more since then:

- He's suffered the further humiliation of losing 61 out of 62 lawsuits.
- He was humiliated by having the Supreme Court which is comprised of three Justices that he himself nominated rejecting his false claims twice in a single week.

- His already low approval rating according to Gallup has fallen even lower. He was at 46% on Election Day. 39% now.
- He's lost many of his most loyal allies. Mike Pence. Mitch McConnell. Lindsey Graham. The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board. The National Association of Manufacturers.

- He's lost business. The PGA has pulled the plug on Bedminster. His brand is more toxic than ever.
Read 9 tweets

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