It's likely that the marginal benefit - the additional improvement on top of other things - of very restrictive COVID-19 interventions like stay-at-home orders may be quite small
However, this is probably equally true of the COST of these interventions
However, this is probably equally true of the COST of these interventions
It's something that I've seen completely ignored by most anti-restriction campaigners, but I think it's an important point that we should consider
Yes, if you've already limited how much people can go out to restaurants etc then closing them entirely might not reduce transmission all that much
But it also won't have the same negative impact either!
But it also won't have the same negative impact either!
The point is not that these restrictions are either good or bad, but simply that the idea that there is a simple way to estimate the cost-benefit of such interventions is almost certainly wrong
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