It may be factor rotation out of GROWTH (FAANG which may trade range bound after tractor beaming future growth to present) as well as less concentrated longer tail of broader overvaluation in Russell 2000 (all can’t be the next FAANGs)...
2/ A shift from NARRATIVE driven motivated buying to fundamentals (notably even classic metric driven discounted cash flow & equity risk premia (Damodaran)+ CAPE (Shiller) have shifted focus to explain investor behavior to STORIES over STORES (of value)...
3/ The 10:1 leverage driving SPAC arb participants maybe gets reduced a bit and PIPE players get reduced alot (and we go thru phase of more signal and less noise aka more quality and less crap)...
4/ The pure THEMATIC ETFs sucking in capital for sector “plays” see reversals from tourists if and when there is 10-20% downdraft...
5/ But o’ course the big mammajamma widow-maker poster child: the $800B gorilla
that shining beacon of profitability, positive cash flow and hyper truth-telling...record-vol turnover, valued @ $1.25M per-car-sold, knighter of knaves wielding OTM YOLO calls...hope for humanity.
7/ Defense, healthcare, transportation, infrastructure, trucking, airlines—heavy industry with some inflation protection (as replacement costs may give incumbent unfair competitive advantage against entrants facing rising costs) i see doing OK
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1/ In preview: FLORIDA is utterly + completely ABSURD.
(as every ‘Florida Man’ meme account or Carl Hiaasen novel shows).
It’s why all the eye-rolling criticism is totally justified—
—BUT misses that entrepreneurial surprise (entropy)
is nearly 100% ASSURED.
I predict...
2/ A FL-native Latinx tech-scene billionaire in the next 4 years...
The SF tech + VC scene that has moved GIVES more proximate + more frequent chance of encounters and more access to capital + fluid connections + intros—aka R&O (“randomness + optionality”)
But most importantly—
3/ All the connections in FL are fresh + NEW.
Consider this excerpt from a brilliant SFI + Princeton researcher Simon Levin.
Captured in #3D with more than 1,200 scan points, the outdoor exhibition of @Orticolario "The Origin" teleports the viewer to any place in the garden so they might undertake a journey between gardening, landscape, art and design. bit.ly/3ayM787
3/...to the heights of Tarragona, Spain🇪🇸—down the Mediterranean coast from Barcelona—to explore the hidden gem of @UNESCO World Heritage site, @ctarraconense photographer Pierre Grubius walks us through this historical place. bit.ly/2JeKUaw
1/ THIS was an email sent 9yrs ago—from an unknown scientist with entrepreneurial ambitions.
We didn’t reply
9yrs later we + others (including Bill Gates, Jim Simons , sovereign wealth funds + top biotech VCs)—have put over $250M in companies @ipeikon has helped start with Lux
where Columbia U’s Tom Maniatis (to my right) tipped off Lux me + @AGoulburn —
to the enormous potential of Cryo-EM as cutting edge technology for science...
-in SCIENCE via methods of conjecture + refutation
-in PRODUCTS via better, cheaper, faster, more convenient
-in INVESTORS in self-interest competing to be earlier than others, funneling funds MOST likely to be lost for slim chance of big gains
3/ Which have driven
-global communication costs to near ZERO
-processor computation + video rendering to exponentially better quality
-frictionless exchange of scientific information to model in DAYS(!) + manufacture in MONTHS(!) a vaccine
-with a system of safety + testing...