1/ Speculation:

It may be factor rotation out of GROWTH (FAANG which may trade range bound after tractor beaming future growth to present) as well as less concentrated longer tail of broader overvaluation in Russell 2000 (all can’t be the next FAANGs)...

More flows into VALUE..
2/ A shift from NARRATIVE driven motivated buying to fundamentals (notably even classic metric driven discounted cash flow & equity risk premia (Damodaran)+ CAPE (Shiller) have shifted focus to explain investor behavior to STORIES over STORES (of value)...
3/ The 10:1 leverage driving SPAC arb participants maybe gets reduced a bit and PIPE players get reduced alot (and we go thru phase of more signal and less noise aka more quality and less crap)...
4/ The pure THEMATIC ETFs sucking in capital for sector “plays” see reversals from tourists if and when there is 10-20% downdraft...
5/ But o’ course the big mammajamma widow-maker poster child: the $800B gorilla

that shining beacon of profitability, positive cash flow and hyper truth-telling...record-vol turnover, valued @ $1.25M per-car-sold, knighter of knaves wielding OTM YOLO calls...hope for humanity.
7/ Defense, healthcare, transportation, infrastructure, trucking, airlines—heavy industry with some inflation protection (as replacement costs may give incumbent unfair competitive advantage against entrants facing rising costs) i see doing OK

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More from @wolfejosh

13 Jan
1/ In preview: FLORIDA is utterly + completely ABSURD.

(as every ‘Florida Man’ meme account or Carl Hiaasen novel shows).

It’s why all the eye-rolling criticism is totally justified—

—BUT misses that entrepreneurial surprise (entropy)
is nearly 100% ASSURED.

I predict...
2/ A FL-native Latinx tech-scene billionaire in the next 4 years...

The SF tech + VC scene that has moved GIVES more proximate + more frequent chance of encounters and more access to capital + fluid connections + intros—aka R&O (“randomness + optionality”)

But most importantly—
3/ All the connections in FL are fresh + NEW.

Consider this excerpt from a brilliant SFI + Princeton researcher Simon Levin.

“..Joint partnerships that are genuinely NEW”...
Read 6 tweets
12 Jan
1/ Listen to @brett_mcgurk (not Pompeo) on Al Qaeda
(a different mind virus the world must contend with).

Idlib (Syria) is and will be a key theater amongst many competing interests of US + "TRI" (Turkey, Russian, Iran)...
2/ To the NORTH of Idlib is border with Turkey.

And it is situated along highways running SOUTH from the Aleppo to Damascus...

HTS: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is the key formerly AQ threat.

This is COMPLEXITY cubed. Image
3/
TURKEY wants to avoid more refugees on its border and prevent Kurds from getting territory + power

RUSSIA wants militarily strategic access to project power.
-Airbase in Latakia
-Naval base in Tartus.

IRAN wants Assad in power, Hezbollah amplified, US interests thwarted.
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec 20
1/ Lux family co’s @Matterport platform going truly GLOBAL

From Lebanon... bit.ly/34DbYHV
2/ To ITALY...🇮🇹

Captured in #3D with more than 1,200 scan points, the outdoor exhibition of @Orticolario "The Origin" teleports the viewer to any place in the garden so they might undertake a journey between gardening, landscape, art and design.
bit.ly/3ayM787
3/...to the heights of Tarragona, Spain🇪🇸—down the Mediterranean coast from Barcelona—to explore the hidden gem of @UNESCO World Heritage site, @ctarraconense photographer Pierre Grubius walks us through this historical place.
bit.ly/2JeKUaw
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec 20
1/ THIS was an email sent 9yrs ago—from an unknown scientist with entrepreneurial ambitions.

We didn’t reply

9yrs later we + others (including Bill Gates, Jim Simons , sovereign wealth funds + top biotech VCs)—have put over $250M in companies @ipeikon has helped start with Lux
2/ Here is the story of KALLYOPE—which this brilliant young scientist helped create + build with Lux’s @AGoulburn leading the way.
3/ HERE was one of the founding dinners—

where Columbia U’s Tom Maniatis (to my right) tipped off Lux me + @AGoulburn
to the enormous potential of Cryo-EM as cutting edge technology for science...
Read 9 tweets
15 Dec 20
1/ The VISUAL is VISCERAL

Was telling my 10yo daughter why we both cry more easily in movies than books—empathy, emulation, mirror neurons (maybe).

Few looked at Syria (statistics, words on pages)
til powerful pic of tragic toddler washed ashore
made it too hard to look away...
2/ A few 2020 year of pictures—

all powerful with context we have
that someone from the past would not grok
nor someone in the future without knowing history.

Dallas Morning News...
dallasnews.com/news/2020/12/1…
3/ SF Chronicle 125 pics for 2020

sfchronicle.com/projects/2020/…
Read 12 tweets
5 Dec 20
1/ As we approach the end of 2020–
a REMINDER of the power of RESILIENCE.

When things seem like total disasters—politics, poverty, pandemic—it is because of REALISM that they are...

...which gives way to conditional OPTIMISM that our globally interconnected, market-driven...
2/...highly competitive whether

-in SCIENCE via methods of conjecture + refutation

-in PRODUCTS via better, cheaper, faster, more convenient

-in INVESTORS in self-interest competing to be earlier than others, funneling funds MOST likely to be lost for slim chance of big gains
3/ Which have driven

-global communication costs to near ZERO
-processor computation + video rendering to exponentially better quality
-frictionless exchange of scientific information to model in DAYS(!) + manufacture in MONTHS(!) a vaccine
-with a system of safety + testing...
Read 5 tweets

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