It has been a few weeks since China's announcement at the #ClimateAmbition Summit to enhance its 2030 targets. Here is a quick overview of the domestic developments since then. Thread
The national ETS is feeling more pressure from the top to start running. The start date is now set for Feb 1, but expect much remaining technical works to be done afterward. In any case, price will be low and only the power sector will be covered at the initial phase.
The MEE was tasked to develop a national peaking roadmap and will require provinces and key industries to identify their peaking year. The exact mechanism of deciding the peak years is unclear, but expect a lot of haggles between Beijing and interest groups.
On January 14th, Shanghai announced its intention to peak emissions within the 14th Five Year period. Although it has not been clarified by the local authority, this has been interpreted by some domestic media as peaking by 2025.
This timeline raises concerns that if an economically advanced province peaks as late as 2025, it will set a poor benchmark for others, delay the national peaking, and limit the ability of Beijing to commit to more ambitious goals internationally.
Recent media reports also indicate push back from other provinces. Instead of seeing new national commitments as a signal to transition, some are interpreting the next 5-10 yrs as last chance to boost high carbon economies. A rush to approve energy intensive projects is underway.
Expect this dynamic to be the central theme of China's climate politics in 2021. The result of the central-local dynamic will be key for what more China can do domestically and internationally. END
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