Let's do a Friday afternoon check-in on what's going on in pro-Trump social media
One of the most dominant themes is paranoia. Anyone who talks about a rally, protest, march, or other action gets accused quickly of being part of the FBI/antifa/deep state 1/
That said, this is not quite right because… 2/
…the Virginia Citizens Defense League is organizing a caravan for Lobby Day on the 18th. Their event was armed last year (photos from 2020) and they explain how to show up armed this year, even though they don't have permits to hold an official event vcdl.org/LD2021Routes/ 3/
That's not to say they are showing up to try to overturn the election, but still, it IS a conservative group holding an optionally-armed "bunch of people showing up in the same place but not calling it a rally event". FWIW, some think the Deep State is setting them up too 4/
Still, I'm not seeing any big organizing of events on open pro-Trump social media. Smaller groups may get together, but I don't see anything happening at scale among average MAGA supporters 5/
Beyond events, what's happening? The Qanon conspiracy theory says that the Satan-worshiping cannibalistic pedophile international child sex-trafficking ring that's infiltrated government and the media is going to be disrupted in The Storm. Q-adherents are waiting for The Storm 6/
There are photos of caravans and National Guard deployments being offered as evidence that The Storm may be coming ahead of Inauguration. Some believe this may lead to the rest of *hundreds* of members of congress. There's no individual action related to this. Just waiting 7/
While we saw nearly universal acceptance of Q among pro-Trump social media before 1/6, doubts are emerging. Someone posted on a pro-Trump FB page "Has anyone heard anything on when things are going to start happening?" (referring to The Storm). Here are representative replies 8/
Any calls for action I'm seeing are pretty vague and people still respond with worries about arrest. Like, most replies to this guy were basically "shut up! what are you doing? the FBI is listening!" 9/
OK so please indulge me sharing my favorites which aren't trends but like, I sort of need to talk about them? I'm sorry my screen shot cut off their comment on this because it says "they don't hide anything😡" They believe this post is like, a legit online confession! 10/
Also this 1 where they are like "GAB CEO does the IMPOSSIBLE OMG he got all of Trump's tweets before Twitter shut him down IT IS AMAZING!!!"
And I'm like "my dude, you mean the tweets that have literally been archived at (checks notes) Trump Twitter Archive dot com for years" 11/
Seriously thetrumparchive.com formerly trump twitter archive dot come is an amazing resource 12/
Here's a final look into their discussions; this is one thread. The thing that DOES worry me is at the top of #4 with "Donald J. Trump is our President. I await his instructions." One rogue statement from Trump could destabilize everything. So let's hope he stays quiet. 13/
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I am naturally an optimist! But I am primarily a scientist and I study how things spread through social networks. I am profoundly worried. I'll let epidemiologists can give you a good scientific warning, but I want to share how I am preparing for what's coming 1/
There were ~171,000 new cases / day this week. That alone is astonishing. And in 2 days, a lot of people are going to gather in big groups, maskless, indoors. This will be catastrophic. 2/
People will get sick from Thanksgiving, but they will be spreading this for a couple weeks before the full impact emerges. I said I am an optimist. I am not a doomsayer. I would not be surprised to see us hit 500,000 cases / day. Say a month from now. December 24… 3/
My friend, I am an expert on Benford's Law (in fact, I'm in that documentary you watched about it on Netflix). If you'd like me to explain the countless ways you don't know what you're talking about here, let me know.
LET'S DO THIS! (listen up @ukipwebmaster & whoever made that stupid graphic)
Benford's law is NOT EVEN USEFUL for detecting election fraud!
Deckert, Joseph, Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook. "Benford's Law and the detection of election fraud." Political Analysis 19.3 (2011)
Let them tell you!
"Benford's Law is problematical at best as a forensic tool when applied to elections…Its 'success rate' either way is essentially equivalent to a toss of a coin, thereby rendering it problematical at best as a forensic tool and wholly misleading at worst."
When we talk about algorithms being biased, it's not necessarily because that's built in there. This thread shows twitter cropping images of Mitch McConnell and Pres. Obama. Mitch gets picked every time. Other experiments also show a racial preference in the algorithm. Why? 1/
It's not that anyone at Twitter said "Let's prioritize white face over black ones!" It's a side effect of the algorithm. It used to look for faces, and all facial recognition works way better for white people because it learns on more examples of white people. 2/
If you see a wide range of white faces, you can recognize them better. Facial algorithms also work better on men. They often learn from celebrity photos, & women have a smaller range of acceptable appearance to be a celebrity.
(side note: facial recognition should be banned)
3/
Lots of us are facing the prospect of moving our courses online. UMD hasn't yet, but the idea's out there.
I teach online A LOT so for those of you who may have to do this but don't know where to start, I'm putting tutorials & lessons on this playlist youtube.com/playlist?list=…
I just started tonight, but it will grow to have a bunch of tech tutorials on recording lectures & hosting classes, as well as some ideas about things I use for engagement, exercises, etc. I hope it will be a good supplement to the things your unis are providing to help!
Oh, and if you come out of that playlist onto my general youtube channel, you'll find ~100 videos that I've created for my classes over the years. Please use any that may fit in your syllabi & reach out if you want supplementary materials!
Facebook is tracking you ALL OVER THE WEB! Want to see how much? Start by going here. Click on "Manage your off-facebook activity" in the box to the right... 1/ facebook.com/off_facebook_a…
There's a ton of stuff here, despite the fact that my browser has facebook tracking fenced off as much as possible, I NEVER log in with facebook anywhere, and I'm privacy/tracker blocked to the gills. (STOP TRACKING ME YOU GUYS!)
Ok once you're done raging at all these places exchanging info about you with Facebook, click on "Manage Future Activity" to the right. Then click "Manage Future Activity" in this pop up 3/