Thread by @WilliamYang120

A complete and insightful breakdown of the impact of @SecPompeo's recent waves of abrupt decisions regarding #Taiwan. By @BonnieGlaser, @RichardBushIII and Mike Green: csis.org/analysis/pompe…

"However, we were skeptical why Secretary of State Pompeo announced in the 11th hour that all previous rules governing unofficial U.S. interaction with Taiwan are suddenly “null and void”—essentially signaling that Taiwan can expect the full range of diplomatic treatment...

... it enjoyed before normalization with Beijing in 1979. This is not because we oppose expanding unofficial interactions with Taiwan, but because of the capricious and dubious way this decision was unveiled.

"First, a decision to eliminate a set of policies that were carefully calibrated by Republican and Democratic administrations over four-plus decades and that have significant geopolitical implications should be based on deliberate consideration of the objectives being served...

... and the risks and benefits involved, coordinated with Congress and allies, and established for that administration itself to administer over the coming years."

"Such a major shift in policy should not be dropped on a Saturday morning by an outgoing administration mired in the worst crisis of democracy in our nation’s modern history—effectively forcing the next administration to deal with a fait accompli."

"This only incentivizes Beijing to put even greater pressure on the new administration to place stricter restrictions on Taiwan. And if the issue was so necessary, why wait until the last minute to announce the change?"

"There is merit in that statement. So what was the rush in doing this now, particularly since many changes to these guidelines have and can be made quietly?

We cannot think of an earlier case where an outgoing administration deliberately burdened its successor with a problem in China policy this way."

"Second, at a time when Taiwan needs and deserves bipartisan support, this decision appears intended to dare the incoming Biden administration to reverse it—essentially allowing Republicans on the Hill and...

... aspiring presidential candidates to claim they are the true defenders of democratic Taiwan and opponents of communist China."

"when Taiwan policy has been politicized in the past and support for Taiwan set up as a political litmus test, bilateral relations have always suffered. This is something neither the United States nor...

... Taiwan can afford at a time when increasing Chinese hubris and coercion require us and our allies to be in lock step with Taipei."

"Finally, this move does little to compensate for the failings in U.S. policy toward Asia over the past four years that have left Taiwan more vulnerable. Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership deprived Taiwan of its best chance for a multilateral trade agreement...

... that would have reduced dependence on China for economic growth."

"It goes without saying that the president’s own egregious behavior has weakened the credibility of the United States as a champion of the democratic norms Taiwan has established for itself and as a model for the rest of Asia."

"The outgoing administration deserves credit for advancing defense relations with Japan and pushing back against China militarily—but Taiwan’s liberal democracy can only survive in an ecosystem of rules and norms that the administration has badly damaged.

This last-minute move will not change any of that."