THREAD: on the connection between age, infection, hospitalisation, death and vaccination...
TLDR: it matters! so read 7 tweets :-)
Each bar in the charts shows the proportion of people in each of the coloured age categories. 1/7
TLDR: it matters! so read 7 tweets :-)
Each bar in the charts shows the proportion of people in each of the coloured age categories. 1/7
Confirmed cases are more likely to be working age adults & older teenagers. Young kids (esp pre-school) less likely to show symptoms (& get tested) & poss less likely to get infected. Over 65s less likely to be exposed.
Vaccinating >70s is *not* going to stop Covid cases. 2/7
Vaccinating >70s is *not* going to stop Covid cases. 2/7
But although relatively few people over 65 get infected, they are the majority of people in *hospital* with Covid - they're much more likely to get really sick.
Vaccinating >70s WILL relieve a lot of pressure on hospitals (by March).
We still need to drive cases down NOW. 3/7
Vaccinating >70s WILL relieve a lot of pressure on hospitals (by March).
We still need to drive cases down NOW. 3/7
But there's more to it. V few people 85+ are in ICU & only 25% of people in ICU are >70. This isn't rationing (true for non crowded times too) - it's cos v frail people v unlikely to get better after ICU.
So vaccinating >70s WON'T help ICUs much. Need to vax middle aged! 4/7
So vaccinating >70s WON'T help ICUs much. Need to vax middle aged! 4/7
Finally, deaths are a different story again. This time the large majority of people dying from covid are over 70.
Vaccinating the over 70s will make a *huge* difference to covid deaths. This is what is driving the vax strategy.
BUT.... 5/7
Vaccinating the over 70s will make a *huge* difference to covid deaths. This is what is driving the vax strategy.
BUT.... 5/7
Ever since Xmas case numbers are accelarating in over 80s (only age group to increase!) as are outbreaks in care homes.
Might be from seeing elderly loved ones over Xmas?
Really is race against time to protect >80s 6/7
Might be from seeing elderly loved ones over Xmas?
Really is race against time to protect >80s 6/7
Finally - just cos vaccinating >70s prevents most deaths it does NOT mean it's fine for everyone else to get Covid.
A) 5-10% people get long Covid which is grim
B) every person who gets it is an extra chance for covid to mutate into a worse strain. 7/7
A) 5-10% people get long Covid which is grim
B) every person who gets it is an extra chance for covid to mutate into a worse strain. 7/7
DATA: I've used population age data from ONS, ages of people who test positive, are admitted to hospital & ICU (PHE), ages for covid deaths (ONS)
PS shielding people being vaccinated along with 70+ by mid Feb
PS shielding people being vaccinated along with 70+ by mid Feb
PPS used data since start October 2020
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