THREAD: quick overview of where we are with Covid in the UK.
TLDR: some optimism but a long way to go. NHS will struggle for a bit yet :-( 1/11
TLDR: some optimism but a long way to go. NHS will struggle for a bit yet :-( 1/11
First, cases have come down over last week which is good BUT they have climbed over this week.
Is this a blip? or is this is the impact of people going back to work after Xmas, more stuff open & more kids in school than March lockdown? This week should tell us more. 2/11
Is this a blip? or is this is the impact of people going back to work after Xmas, more stuff open & more kids in school than March lockdown? This week should tell us more. 2/11
The proportion of people tested who have Covid is coming down in ALL nations - esp in NI and Wales. Good news!
BUT this misses data from later part of week which had higher case numbers & rates are still v high everywhere (we were at 1-2% over summer!) 3/11
BUT this misses data from later part of week which had higher case numbers & rates are still v high everywhere (we were at 1-2% over summer!) 3/11
In England, positivity rate dropped in most regions - esp prev Tier 4 regions which have effectively been locked down since 19 Dec. NW, West Midlands & SW barely moved though. 4/11
Hospital occupancy in all nations is higher than in Spring. NI, England and Wales about *twice* as high as April peak.
Wales and NI starting to come down which is really good news. 5/11
Wales and NI starting to come down which is really good news. 5/11
Hospital admissions in England are much higher than April peak. Some signs that they are stabilising over last week - but we need to get them to come down FAST.
Many more people admitted to hospital since Sept than in the first wave - and well over 100K since December :-( 6/11
Many more people admitted to hospital since Sept than in the first wave - and well over 100K since December :-( 6/11
Regionally, London, East and SE are starting to fall in admissions - really good news but it's taken over 3 weeks of tier 4/lockdown to get there. Occupancy should follow soon but from an insanely high level.
Mids, SW still rising very fast which is bad 7/11
Mids, SW still rising very fast which is bad 7/11
Don't think London & SE are ok. Critical care occupancy is higher than 1st wave & taking longer to come down. We urgently need to accelerate drop in cases to relieve pressure.
The numbers in these hospital charts are real people, struggling to breathe & exhausted NHS staff 8/11
The numbers in these hospital charts are real people, struggling to breathe & exhausted NHS staff 8/11
Deaths registered by week in ONS and equiv have gone up to 1st Jan but are still very lagged. Given the big increases we see in reported deaths (2nd pic) this will go up steeply soon. 9/11
Good news on vaccination. The UK is on track to meet the 2 million a week target and over 40% of over 80s have now been vaccinated. Well over 300,000 people were vaccinated on Thursday - it's ramping up! 10/11
Summary: good that some signs of cases reducing and admissions plateauing - but concerning that cases have risen over past week again.
Need cases to drop faster: Support isolation, reduce what counts as "key worker" for work outside home & schools. Generous furlough 11/11
Need cases to drop faster: Support isolation, reduce what counts as "key worker" for work outside home & schools. Generous furlough 11/11
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