THREAD: one more time on the need for citizens to understand the need for, then demand, then deliberate on, then manage - a total pivotal change. Next tweet..what is a pivot and why we need one 1/
We all did this as kids: Walk up a see-saw, you keep going fine until you cross the fulcrum then WHAM! It flips.This is what happens in nature when resources are used up faster than they are replenished. All goes fine until nearly half are used up. All who study biology know..2/
This flip is a population crash. It is natural. Important to know: the crash comes after the point where more resources are being used up than are being replenished. There is a period of overshoot. The crash comes some time after overshoot. Can that happen to humans? 3/
According to Joseph Tainter (1988) there have been three:
Ancient Rome
Mayan Civilisation
Ancestral Puebloans
Modern society is exhibiting all the signs (Club of Rome 1972) 4/ archive.org/details/collap…
All of this is well-known by scholars. But somehow it does not seem to have sunk in with citizens in general. The urgency. So let me say it again in a retweet-worthy way 5/
For every major resource that we as humanity rely on, we are in overshoot. This means unless we make radical, major changes to our way of life (PIVOT) society risks collapse as the overshoot catches us up. Lett me ask you fellow citizens - is there anything unclear here? 6/
Right! Citizens understand the need to address overshoot the next thing is what do we demand be done about it? We COULD not demand anything - and watch ours and coming generations deal with more and more early death. A real option taken by many civilisations before us 7/
There ARE examples of where citizens have handled overshoot, but only in circumstances where groups of them have looked after a common piece of land or seawater. Thomas Princen's book has examples. 8/ mitpress.mit.edu/books/logic-su…
We let it happen or we enter a process where we as citizens deliberate. What are we willing to give up in order to open up to get something better for us and coming generations? Then we need to act. That is Pivot. 9/9 stephenhinton.org/2021/01/02/the…
THREAD: Johan Rockström's Performance lecture at the Swedish National Theatre (in Swedish, English Subtitles) and what it tells activists and Scientists alike. Watch it now or read my review 1/n svtplay.se/video/29406900…
In the performance, Johan Rockström sits at the bottom of the bed of a young family and explains our climate predicament. In words, no graphs. The young mother listens and gets engaged in a dialogue with him. There is a lot to like about the performance ... 2/n
Dramatic to see two worlds collide - one who has been studying the workings of the planet for 20 years and the other who has been concentrating on her acting career and having a child. (The husband is too tired to listen "I've got a rehearsal in the morning let me sleep) ..3/n
TRÅD: Sorgligt det inte tas upp hur tobak är negativt för miljö och hälsa - även i snusform. Lyssna inte på Swedish Match VD som får uttala sig i DN utan kritiska följdfrågor. forts.... DN.SEdn.se/ekonomi/swedis…
Snus är ingen hälsoprodukt. Det är mindre farligt att snusa än att röka, men snusare har bland annat högre risk att dö om de drabbas av hjärtinfarkt och stroke, och nikotin ger styvare blodkärl, vilket ökar risken för hjärt-kärlsjukdomar. forts...
På sin hemsida skriver Swedish Match att de arbetar för att eliminera barnarbete i tobaksplantagerna. Att de är medlemmar i ECLT Foundation är greenwashing, enligt Tobacco Control Research Group vid Bath University som forskar på tobaksindustrin. Forts...
TAIL RISK THREAD: A tail risk is one that is small but devastating. When an 8 year- old asks about crossing the road to get to a bus stop you correctly point out that there is a 1% risk she will get run over. However you might want to suggest instead 1/x
A 3-min walk to the traffic lights and crossing. To frame tail risk you include probability distribution of the event (car colliding with girl), with an outcome function (girl likely dies if hit), and account for the cost of mitigation (3 minutes to walk to traffic light) 2/x
In the realm of climate change, climate scientists are the ones charged with estimating the event risk, while other disciplines (e.g. economics, engineering) must be brought to bear on estimating outcome, and the costs of mitigating the risk or adapting to it. 3/x
THREAD: Understanding pivot. Growing pressure from world population life-style will reach a point where it is damaging the capacity of Earth systems to an extent where life support will be challenged. It is simply a question of at what stage governments act. 1/X
Pivot is the same at each point 1-4. I use the STOP acronym. a) Stop, or halt, all increase of extraction/drawdown. b) Think, plan measures that will restore Earth system capacity and keep delivering basic services. c) Organise, re-work old regulations and agencies and then 2/x
Proceed to act. Notice that pivots are different depending on where measures are set in. It is MUCH harder to change when carrying capacity is challenged to an extent where people are dying. However, the pivot idea is a useful decision framework as you will see in 3/x
Thread: A pivot is a sudden change in direction to another direction. The diagram explains why we need to pivot now: the sum aggregate of business activities is extracting more from and putting more into natural systems than the systems can handle. The consequence? Contd...
Natural systems unable to support the number of human population and there will be a massive die-off. This phenomenon is well-known by biologists. Populations rise and crash all the time. Populations CAN exceed carrying capacity a short time - but a crash always results. contd
We have no choice now, having entered the danger zone, but to prepare for the crash. This requires us to voluntarily pivot. Declare the emergency for what it is and get on with it.
Thread on pivoting: to avoid worse crises our way of life has to pivot. That is to say, STOP. Stop going in current direction. THINK through the new direction. ORGANISE so we are ready then PIVOT.>>>
Utopia you might say on Pivot. We cannot agree. We have I say. The broad direction and even speed of that change is embedded in the Sustainable Development Goals. How then to apply SDG goals to plan pivots? Well, >>>
Presented in this form, the bottom layer of SDGs show what to pivot away from - ceilings. The social layer shows the floors to keep above and the top layer shows the economic operating space for the production system with peace as our aim. Let's look at the math>>>