If you are still declaring „how could leave voters have been so stupid?” – you are not just part of the problem – you don’t understand your own country.

Brexit & the survival of the English gentleman.

- A Thread –
2/
Imagine for a moment you’re NOT the type of person that watches Newsnight, regularly reads a newspaper or went to Uni. Imagine you’re a busy person with family.

That is, imagine you're in the majority of the population.
& the governing party offer a referendum with 2 choices.
3/

To the average person why would a govt run by a party thats largely ruled the country since a century offer a choice btwn 2 options if one was stupid, self-harming nonsense?

This doesn’t seem a big point point – but its utterly central to Brexit..& one remainers often miss.
4/

The very fact that leave EU was an option gave it…to the average person - a respectability.

Otherwise you have to face the fact that much of the ruling class are idiots..& didnt think things thru.

Now that might be easy to a cynical, Guardian reader – but again 95% aren’t.
5/

Next problem:
Custom unions, trade blocs & economics.

Again 95% of voters don’t understand these - & judging by their comments this 95% includes MPs.

If Nadine Dorries confuses Single mkt with custom areas (her job!) – why do we expect voters to understand these things?
6/

Its unPC or at least undiplomatic to say so but its true.

The UK offered a vote on something the vast majority of voters (incl MPs!) didn’t understand & gave both options the “establishment blessing” as perfectly adequate outcomes.

And we’re blaming voters?
REALLY?
7/

The simple truth is that the referendum was fought on emotion & the version of the “English Gentleman” the voters found most appealing.

Its often overlooked that while Cameron & Johnson come from very similar entitled backgrounds they're actually quite different...
8/

Cameron is the smooth, steady-as-she-goes, polite “good chap”.
Johnson is the Woosterish club man always good for a joke about the French.

Both rely on the traditional - & often unexpressed publicly - English deference to the upper class to succeed.

& Johnson shaved it.
9/

Now I know some of you will say “Yes but voters didn’t like the EU, wanted law-making powers back etc” – well quite possibly some of them did.
They may even have convinced themselves.
But very few among the 95% were saying that 15 years ago.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Indepe…
10/

But imagine "Boris” arguing “We can beat the Frog better inside EU than out” or that Cameron had come along with 100 page post-Brexit strategy…Johnson may have won.

Point is Brexit didn’t just suit Johnson’s leadership ambitions – it was an easier sell emotionally for him.
11/

The real problem.
It wasn’t just voters who let emotions sway them.

MPs did.

There were no plans for Brexit as only people who thought it might win didn’t believe in planning & the good old chaps who might be able didn’t believe in it.

Again:
THIS ISN’T THE VOTERS FAULT.
12/

The failure of the English Gentleman

& well…here’s one I’ve prepared earlier explaining the real reason why Brexit must be carried out:
Its to save the idea of the English gentleman…as without it….the voters might realise there’s nothing...there.

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More from @nicktolhurst

17 Jan
2 weeks into Brexit..

..and one of its chief architects decides to leave Britain.

Douglas Carswell, former Tory & at one time only UKIP MP, has decided to forgo the delight of seeing the glorious Brexit era he helped usher in..

..he’s moved to Mississippi in the US Deep South.
2/

For disappointed “Carswell fans” don’t worry!

..you can still catch up with the latest Carswell news via the Mississippi Centre for Public Policy - a right wing lobby organisation that Douglas now heads.
3/

The Mississippi Center supports the “privatization of medical services around the world”, which seems a little strange as Carswell...

...did of course champion the £350 million a week extra Govt spending on NHS “Brexit bonus”.

Still I’m sure that’s all a misunderstanding!
Read 5 tweets
16 Jan
+UPDATE+

The UK Govt plans to raise money from hauliers by taxing them £50 an hour as they park at the govt's 'inland border facilities" while waiting for Brexit customs checks.
2/

Number of media sources - including the Telegraph's Alan Tovey - now confirming the UK Govt's plans to extract money from hauliers as they are forcibly delayed waiting for Brexit customs checks.
3/

There's another issue in that the Kent Access permit - "The Kermit" - was originally set for 24 hours...

...if trade does go back to pre COVID levels then the queue of hauliers will automatically mean drivers going over the 24 hour limit & facing further fines (or "taxes").
Read 6 tweets
16 Jan
+UPDATE+

For the first time in 300 years...

....border guards INSIDE Gibraltar will include those from non British countries including Spain as part of EU-UK deal on Gibraltar.
2/

Confirmation also that the road linking Gibtaltar & Spain will now be widened to allow people and cars to travel freely.

Arrivals from UK will - either from air or sea - will now face checks from the EU FRONTEX Schengen border system..
3/

Gibraltar will become part of EU's passport-free travel area - the Schengen zone - though there is a different use of language from both sides on being "part of" or "connected to" Schengen.

This is because as Gibraltar can't join officially as its not an independent country.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jan
+UPDATE+

"Up to 1.3 million people have left the UK since the start of COVID.

This includes 1 in every 12 Londoners - triggering the biggest fall in population in peacetime history.
2/

Reported in FT today:

ft.com/content/def33c…
3/

"many foreign born nationals & high number of job losses in hard hit sectors such as hospitality, which has typically relied on overseas workers...new post-Brexit immigration rules mean EU nationals who left the UK in the past year will, in future, need work visas to return."
Read 5 tweets
14 Jan
1. A SNP/Labour electoral deal is non starter
2. Greens have at best plausibles chance in 3 seats - even with help
3. So comes down to LibDem/Labour - with Starmer in this is possible. Work on this has been done already & an a'ment in just 30 seats would have huge consequences...
2/

Assume current polling figures correct, Conservatives would be largest party but 20 short of outright majority - but still kingmakers.

A LibDem-Lab electoral agreement in just 30 seats would see Tories fall below 300 seats. Impossible to form a Tory govt even with coalition.
3/

I did an awful lot of grunt & physical work on this over last few years.

Its something Im still working on - but more about that soon.

Whats needs to be noted though:
The big gains come in less than 50 seats.
Dont expect it to be nationwide but the numbers are there.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jan
Following on from yesterday:

US media reporting Capitol Building CCTV feeds show Rep Louie Gohmert, Rep Jim Jordan, Rep Matt Gaetz, Rep Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Paul Gosar & Andy Biggs giving ‘reconnaissance’ tours to Trump supporters groups before insurrection.
2/

From Guardian today:

NJ Rep. Mikierill said in a Facebook Live broadcast she saw Republicans “who had groups coming through the Capitol I saw on 5 January for reconnaissance for the next day.” She said some of her GOP colleagues “abetted” Trump & “incited a violent crowd.”
3/

Mikierill
“I’m going to see they’re held accountable & if necessary, ensure they don’t serve in Congress".

She & other Democrats sent a letter Wednesday asking congress security officials to investigate “suspicious behavior & access given to visitors” the day before attack.
Read 4 tweets

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