Thread by @tomiahonen

#AfterTrump
there will be multiple criminal investigations of Trump - and very likely arrests, which could come very soon.

Let's summarize what all is up:

STATE CRIMES Trump cannot pardon (nor could Pence or Biden). Let's start with those

Trump has ongoing investigations...

AT LEAST
New York: Tax fraud
NY Manhattan DA: Campaign finance crimes
Illinois: Tax fraud
DC: Inaugration finance crimes
California: Tax fraud
Georgia: Extortion
Florida: Tax fraud
Florida: Voter fraud
Pennsylvania: Lying to the Court
NJ: Hiring illegals
NJ: Superspreader event

Then there are FEDERAL crimes

Robert Mueller investigated ONLY the 2016 CAMPAIGN contacts with Russia

Mueller said, if they could have exonerated the President, they would have said so (in other words, they could not say Trump is not guilty). And they PRESERVED the evidence

Mueller's Russia probe of 2016 INVOLVED CRIMES that include Trump. He WILL be investigated properly for that after 20 Jan, when he is no longer President.

Mueller did NOT investigate FINANCIAL crimes during 2016 campaign. They will ADD to federal investigation now

In addition to Mueller.. Trump has committed FEDERAL crimes BEFORE the 2016 campaign

Trump has committed crimes during 2016 INAUGRATION

And Trump has engaged in a crime spree since he became President including extortion, emoluments, bribes. A TON of whistleblowers & witnesses

So when will the FBI vans arrive?

There is a VERY wide range of possibilities. His 'best case end' that the FEDs only want Trump for investigations, and INVITE him to interviews, in coming days/weeks. No arrests, no cuffs, even no accusations. That is possible (but unlikely)

At the other extreme is that the FBI have at least one ongoing criminal case where Trump is so clearly a suspect - that he will be arrested. In that case we'd get a PERP WALK.

It could happen on 21 Jan

It could happen on evening of 20 Jan

It could happen at noon on 20 Jan

On the STATE crimes

I do not know how crimes in other states are processed. Can New York State request Florida extradite Trump to face trial in say a tax fraud case? Would they first send him a formal request (subpoena) to appear.. If he doesn't, would they send a Bounty Hunter

Trump HAS committed a series of crimes. He WILL be tried for at least a part of those crimes, hopefully all of them. Now it becomes an interesting parlor game. How many minutes or hours or days or weeks until Trump is in a hearing. Will it be 'invitation' or will it be an arrest

At some point Trump will be arrested. He will request to be let out on bail. A judge probably would have given Trump House Arrest before Insurrection Day. I doubt Trump gets out of jail on bail.

After that it will be criminal trial tours. Trump bussed from one state to the next